Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Max Scherzer vs Drew Rasmussen · 72°F

2.5% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

38.1%

Tampa Bay Rays win

61.9%

Fair line (home)

-162

Proj. total

7.8

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.47)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.34)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.8

Over

47.4%

Under

52.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	38.1%	+175	+162
Tampa Bay Rays	61.9%	-192	-162

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Max Scherzer RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.2	3.3	4.4	1.4	2.0
Drew Rasmussen RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.3	4.9	4.8	1.2	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Max Scherzer4+ 44%6+ 11%8+ 1%

Drew Rasmussen4+ 74%6+ 36%8+ 10%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.6	.769	.152	.013	.031	.389	1.167	.229	.298	.294	.592
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.802	.182	.013	.092	.266	.741	.258	.308	.373	.681
Alejandro Kirk	4.4	.760	.156	.005	.127	.377	.627	.262	.330	.398	.728
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.567	.158	.004	.174	.285	1.137	.227	.286	.400	.685
Andrés Giménez	4.2	.677	.166	.012	.087	.179	.837	.239	.289	.354	.642
Jesús Sánchez	4.1	.587	.174	.011	.135	.279	1.034	.239	.297	.397	.694
Josh Smith	4.0	.580	.149	.014	.076	.305	.873	.226	.299	.339	.637
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.485	.120	.006	.105	.243	1.102	.199	.255	.323	.578
Charles McAdoo	3.8	.529	.129	.015	.115	.218	1.054	.225	.276	.369	.645

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chandler Simpson	4.6	1.072	.136	.055	.016	.222	.454	.295	.332	.363	.695
Junior Caminero	4.5	.645	.163	.010	.321	.386	.841	.282	.348	.565	.913
Jonathan Aranda	4.3	.711	.170	.004	.162	.415	1.065	.270	.349	.441	.790
Yandy Díaz	4.2	.775	.174	.008	.165	.373	.631	.293	.362	.472	.835
Liam Hicks	4.1	.709	.138	.013	.114	.416	.544	.266	.352	.405	.756
Cedric Mullins	4.0	.534	.138	.027	.145	.339	.887	.230	.301	.401	.701
Ryan Vilade	3.9	.575	.155	.018	.131	.299	.929	.244	.308	.407	.715
Richie Palacios	3.8	.577	.133	.021	.083	.397	.731	.241	.328	.366	.694
Taylor Walls	3.7	.500	.119	.025	.050	.359	.908	.210	.292	.306	.598

Data notes: away starter Max Scherzer: only 64 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections