San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 29, 2026 · Walker Buehler vs Nick Martinez · 72°F

3.3% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

48.6%

Tampa Bay Rays win

51.4%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

8.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 4.47)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.38)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.85

Over

49.0%

Under

42.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	48.6%	+116	+106
Tampa Bay Rays	51.4%	-126	-106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Walker Buehler RHP · San Diego Padres	4.5	3.3	4.9	2.1	2.3
Nick Martinez RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.4	3.4	5.8	1.4	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Walker Buehler4+ 42%6+ 10%8+ 1%

Nick Martinez4+ 45%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.8	.779	.204	.018	.223	.402	.778	.284	.351	.495	.845
Jake Cronenworth	4.7	.679	.179	.015	.118	.391	.807	.237	.313	.371	.685
Manny Machado	4.5	.703	.184	.002	.217	.322	.807	.263	.318	.463	.781
Ty France	4.4	.750	.178	.013	.148	.224	.765	.267	.324	.425	.749
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.668	.188	.026	.188	.228	.825	.263	.305	.460	.765
Luis Campusano	4.2	.651	.160	.003	.164	.331	.769	.254	.318	.424	.742
Gavin Sheets	4.1	.576	.160	.005	.162	.313	.749	.239	.304	.413	.717
Luis Rengifo	4.0	.695	.136	.013	.097	.237	.598	.253	.305	.374	.679
Dustin Harris	3.9	.600	.134	.023	.102	.244	.760	.238	.293	.373	.666

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.843	.188	.009	.156	.500	.702	.291	.375	.455	.830
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.734	.168	.003	.148	.534	1.097	.267	.363	.423	.786
Junior Caminero	4.4	.636	.159	.007	.282	.461	.844	.274	.355	.533	.888
Liam Hicks	4.3	.697	.144	.011	.106	.513	.581	.256	.358	.386	.744
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.981	.116	.048	.014	.252	.433	.292	.336	.356	.693
Jonny DeLuca	4.1	.583	.177	.019	.128	.299	.852	.239	.301	.396	.697
Richie Palacios	4.0	.568	.145	.018	.076	.496	.780	.232	.335	.350	.685
Cedric Mullins	3.9	.512	.132	.025	.114	.380	.906	.225	.308	.375	.683
Taylor Walls	3.8	.496	.126	.023	.048	.424	.946	.208	.302	.303	.604

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections