San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 28, 2026 · Casey Mize vs Shane McClanahan · 72°F

1.4% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

47.0%

Tampa Bay Rays win

53.0%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

7.9

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 3.87)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.04)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.9

Over

48.0%

Under

52.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	47.0%	+115	+113
Tampa Bay Rays	53.0%	-125	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Casey Mize RHP · San Diego Padres	4.8	4.0	5.0	1.5	2.2
Shane McClanahan LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	4.8	4.4	4.4	1.5	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Casey Mize4+ 58%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Shane McClanahan4+ 65%6+ 27%8+ 7%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.694	.183	.015	.183	.471	.982	.257	.338	.440	.778
Luis Rengifo	4.6	.749	.145	.011	.096	.293	.856	.236	.292	.343	.635
Manny Machado	4.5	.612	.162	.002	.198	.379	.991	.239	.307	.426	.733
Ty France	4.4	.675	.156	.011	.136	.257	.955	.245	.309	.391	.700
Jackson Merrill	4.3	.618	.160	.026	.162	.268	1.004	.243	.295	.419	.713
Xander Bogaerts	4.2	.660	.146	.004	.097	.375	.811	.241	.315	.360	.675
Austin Hays	4.0	.541	.146	.024	.129	.241	1.132	.222	.274	.376	.650
Freddy Fermin	3.9	.581	.134	.005	.093	.254	.870	.223	.279	.339	.618
Jake Cronenworth	3.8	.511	.129	.012	.082	.372	.852	.217	.306	.335	.641

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.5	.812	.181	.010	.158	.421	.741	.285	.357	.450	.807
Jonathan Aranda	4.4	.699	.171	.004	.156	.435	1.152	.261	.343	.425	.768
Junior Caminero	4.3	.591	.156	.007	.296	.393	.898	.268	.338	.539	.877
Liam Hicks	4.2	.683	.142	.013	.111	.444	.617	.255	.344	.390	.734
Chandler Simpson	4.1	.953	.122	.045	.015	.208	.452	.291	.328	.356	.684
Jonny DeLuca	4.0	.571	.168	.020	.126	.256	.892	.236	.291	.393	.683
Cedric Mullins	3.9	.493	.135	.026	.122	.339	.940	.220	.294	.376	.670
Jorge Mateo	3.8	.496	.168	.009	.102	.208	1.075	.218	.264	.356	.620
Taylor Walls	3.7	.474	.118	.023	.049	.358	.976	.202	.285	.298	.582

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections