Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 20, 2026 · Shane Bieber vs Ian Seymour · 72°F

2.7% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

42.4%

Tampa Bay Rays win

57.6%

Fair line (home)

-136

Proj. total

8.07

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.79)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.28)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.07

Over

50.4%

Under

38.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	42.4%	+147	+136
Tampa Bay Rays	57.6%	-160	-136

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shane Bieber RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	4.9	3.5	5.5	1.4	2.3
Ian Seymour LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	2.6	2.2	2.4	0.8	0.9

Strikeout ladder

Shane Bieber4+ 47%6+ 14%8+ 2%

Ian Seymour4+ 17%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Charles McAdoo	4.7	.640	.162	.018	.158	.317	1.284	.226	.284	.381	.665
Daz Cameron	4.6	.620	.175	.024	.149	.320	1.150	.230	.292	.390	.682
Alejandro Kirk	4.5	.718	.155	.005	.136	.471	.592	.257	.342	.403	.745
George Springer	4.4	.618	.141	.015	.170	.413	.867	.242	.322	.417	.739
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.507	.158	.005	.186	.331	1.081	.221	.290	.408	.697
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.638	.160	.014	.090	.210	.787	.235	.293	.355	.647
Ernie Clement	4.0	.724	.187	.015	.078	.163	.424	.261	.296	.378	.674
Myles Straw	3.9	.618	.140	.018	.040	.286	.734	.226	.287	.308	.595
Nathan Lukes	3.8	.650	.155	.009	.083	.256	.608	.256	.313	.376	.689

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Chandler Simpson	4.6	1.114	.146	.059	.016	.215	.413	.308	.342	.380	.722
Junior Caminero	4.5	.675	.173	.009	.299	.381	.762	.286	.350	.555	.904
Jonathan Aranda	4.3	.755	.182	.003	.144	.418	.980	.280	.357	.440	.796
Yandy Díaz	4.2	.828	.184	.011	.140	.359	.589	.302	.368	.465	.833
Cedric Mullins	4.1	.579	.150	.028	.134	.337	.868	.236	.303	.397	.700
Jonny DeLuca	4.0	.627	.194	.021	.120	.236	.757	.255	.304	.413	.718
Richie Palacios	3.9	.618	.159	.023	.067	.400	.706	.248	.332	.365	.697
Jorge Mateo	3.8	.566	.176	.011	.098	.200	.961	.237	.281	.374	.654
Nick Fortes	3.7	.614	.160	.007	.092	.171	.529	.251	.296	.381	.677

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections