San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

August 30, 2026 · Robbie Ray vs Drew Rasmussen · 72°F

2.3% edge · San Diego Padres

San Diego Padres win

42.3%

Tampa Bay Rays win

57.7%

Fair line (home)

-137

Proj. total

7.91

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

San Diego Padres (mean 3.70)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.22)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.91

Over

48.7%

Under

39.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
San Diego Padres	42.3%	+145	+137
Tampa Bay Rays	57.7%	-158	-137

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Robbie Ray LHP · San Diego Padres	5.2	4.6	5.2	2.3	2.6
Drew Rasmussen RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.2	4.7	4.9	1.3	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Robbie Ray4+ 68%6+ 31%8+ 8%

Drew Rasmussen4+ 71%6+ 34%8+ 9%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

San Diego Padres — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Fernando Tatis Jr.	4.7	.725	.181	.015	.176	.407	.973	.261	.332	.437	.769
Jake Cronenworth	4.5	.621	.165	.015	.097	.372	1.014	.220	.297	.338	.636
Manny Machado	4.4	.639	.170	.003	.183	.322	1.017	.243	.301	.420	.721
Ty France	4.3	.680	.153	.010	.129	.226	.963	.244	.304	.384	.689
Jackson Merrill	4.2	.608	.176	.027	.153	.226	1.020	.242	.288	.415	.703
Xander Bogaerts	4.1	.672	.153	.004	.098	.320	.816	.246	.310	.366	.676
Dustin Harris	4.0	.585	.138	.026	.089	.249	.961	.225	.280	.347	.627
Freddy Fermin	3.9	.584	.138	.004	.091	.217	.858	.224	.273	.338	.611
Sung-Mun Song	3.8	.599	.120	.009	.065	.246	.753	.226	.279	.321	.600

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.776	.179	.009	.181	.534	.751	.288	.378	.474	.852
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.658	.153	.003	.175	.561	1.154	.258	.360	.436	.796
Junior Caminero	4.3	.572	.148	.008	.317	.478	.885	.272	.356	.561	.917
Ryan Vilade	4.2	.575	.151	.018	.141	.403	1.098	.233	.312	.392	.704
Chandler Simpson	4.1	.918	.126	.043	.017	.269	.469	.286	.335	.355	.689
Jonny DeLuca	4.0	.546	.161	.020	.136	.334	.902	.235	.305	.401	.706
Jorge Mateo	3.9	.498	.159	.010	.118	.279	1.127	.216	.276	.364	.640
Nick Fortes	3.8	.577	.143	.005	.104	.247	.674	.237	.298	.370	.668
Taylor Walls	3.7	.450	.117	.013	.059	.424	.992	.197	.295	.296	.590

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections