New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 2, 2026 · Justin Hagenman vs Griffin Jax · 72°F

7.8% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

45.7%

Tampa Bay Rays win

54.3%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

8.14

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 3.98)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.16)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.14

Over

42.4%

Under

49.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	45.7%	+158	+119
Tampa Bay Rays	54.3%	-173	-119

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Justin Hagenman RHP · New York Mets	5.1	3.9	5.3	1.4	2.3
Griffin Jax RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	3.2	3.4	2.9	1.3	1.2

Strikeout ladder

Justin Hagenman4+ 57%6+ 19%8+ 4%

Griffin Jax4+ 44%6+ 11%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.7	.635	.152	.024	.169	.413	1.018	.232	.311	.399	.710
Juan Soto	4.6	.567	.130	.016	.237	.841	.880	.254	.394	.488	.883
Bo Bichette	4.5	.765	.178	.013	.123	.287	.898	.258	.309	.395	.703
Carson Benge	4.4	.667	.146	.030	.124	.332	1.069	.241	.307	.385	.692
Jared Young	4.3	.548	.150	.023	.156	.338	1.093	.225	.296	.395	.692
Marcus Semien	4.2	.546	.123	.011	.130	.344	.913	.213	.282	.353	.635
A.J. Ewing	4.1	.631	.154	.020	.065	.336	1.091	.235	.302	.339	.642
Brett Baty	4.0	.535	.116	.011	.123	.308	1.161	.216	.283	.356	.639
Luis Torrens	3.8	.506	.147	.006	.102	.244	.914	.214	.273	.345	.617

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.828	.189	.008	.161	.381	.695	.287	.354	.453	.807
Jonathan Aranda	4.4	.723	.164	.004	.155	.402	1.098	.262	.339	.422	.761
Junior Caminero	4.3	.615	.165	.009	.292	.353	.831	.273	.337	.541	.878
Liam Hicks	4.2	.711	.143	.010	.115	.412	.562	.261	.346	.397	.743
Chandler Simpson	4.1	.957	.126	.051	.013	.193	.423	.292	.327	.360	.686
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.0	.581	.135	.032	.154	.264	.869	.241	.295	.417	.711
Cedric Mullins	3.9	.523	.138	.023	.134	.311	.884	.229	.297	.393	.690
Richie Palacios	3.8	.556	.134	.019	.068	.391	.759	.230	.317	.342	.659
Taylor Walls	3.7	.494	.125	.022	.051	.344	.901	.209	.288	.306	.594

Data notes: away starter Justin Hagenman: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Justin Hagenman: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections