Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 11, 2026 · Miguel Ullola vs Drew Rasmussen · 72°F

4.6% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

40.9%

Tampa Bay Rays win

59.1%

Fair line (home)

-145

Proj. total

7.89

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 3.64)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.25)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.89

Over

48.0%

Under

51.9%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	40.9%	+170	+145
Tampa Bay Rays	59.1%	-186	-145

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Miguel Ullola RHP · Houston Astros	2.1	2.1	1.9	1.2	0.9
Drew Rasmussen RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.3	5.2	4.7	1.2	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Miguel Ullola4+ 14%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Drew Rasmussen4+ 78%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jose Altuve	4.6	.710	.169	.012	.154	.304	.954	.246	.302	.400	.702
Jeremy Peña	4.5	.714	.168	.013	.142	.207	.971	.246	.292	.394	.686
Isaac Paredes	4.4	.569	.164	.010	.181	.402	.776	.238	.323	.424	.747
Daulton Varsho	4.3	.515	.151	.030	.154	.271	1.103	.214	.269	.383	.652
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.690	.170	.009	.149	.144	.786	.254	.284	.412	.696
Christian Walker	4.1	.460	.146	.006	.177	.278	1.115	.211	.277	.396	.672
Cam Smith	4.0	.498	.125	.035	.134	.262	1.111	.217	.277	.381	.657
Taylor Trammell	3.8	.391	.128	.022	.125	.320	1.280	.192	.268	.349	.617
Nick Allen	3.7	.561	.134	.006	.045	.241	.855	.217	.273	.299	.572

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.755	.165	.007	.159	.538	.818	.272	.367	.437	.805
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.637	.155	.004	.153	.562	1.233	.248	.356	.411	.766
Junior Caminero	4.4	.565	.147	.008	.288	.494	.957	.262	.351	.529	.880
Liam Hicks	4.3	.666	.128	.011	.112	.537	.644	.252	.361	.386	.746
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.2	.547	.137	.025	.163	.366	.998	.231	.305	.410	.716
Chandler Simpson	4.1	.891	.112	.040	.018	.265	.488	.281	.330	.346	.675
Cedric Mullins	4.0	.464	.126	.020	.125	.444	.977	.212	.309	.368	.677
Richie Palacios	3.8	.485	.130	.016	.082	.501	.814	.217	.330	.342	.671
Jorge Mateo	3.7	.460	.147	.008	.095	.272	1.130	.208	.270	.338	.609

Data notes: away starter Miguel Ullola: only 14 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Miguel Ullola: only 13 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections