New York Mets vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Sean Manaea vs Freddy Peralta · 72°F

6.8% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

51.2%

Tampa Bay Rays win

48.8%

Fair line (home)

+105

Proj. total

8.29

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.31)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 3.98)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.29

Over

44.0%

Under

48.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	51.2%	+121	-105
Tampa Bay Rays	48.8%	-131	+105

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sean Manaea LHP · New York Mets	4.4	3.7	4.3	1.4	1.9
Freddy Peralta RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.2	5.3	4.8	2.3	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Sean Manaea4+ 52%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Freddy Peralta4+ 79%6+ 44%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.8	.635	.139	.026	.198	.450	.984	.235	.320	.420	.740
Juan Soto	4.7	.560	.128	.017	.274	.903	.840	.261	.408	.524	.932
Bo Bichette	4.6	.771	.178	.013	.129	.311	.856	.258	.312	.398	.710
Carson Benge	4.5	.687	.148	.027	.142	.353	1.025	.248	.317	.403	.720
Jared Young	4.4	.563	.146	.021	.173	.382	1.078	.231	.310	.412	.722
Brett Baty	4.3	.565	.126	.011	.138	.360	1.217	.218	.290	.364	.654
Francisco Alvarez	4.1	.462	.123	.006	.197	.398	1.192	.214	.299	.411	.710
A.J. Ewing	4.0	.612	.160	.019	.071	.364	1.062	.237	.311	.350	.661
Nick Morabito	3.9	.555	.110	.014	.070	.292	1.113	.210	.279	.308	.587

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.5	.791	.185	.009	.158	.470	.708	.285	.369	.454	.823
Ryan Vilade	4.4	.611	.162	.022	.132	.378	1.109	.231	.305	.382	.687
Junior Caminero	4.3	.596	.150	.009	.295	.435	.846	.272	.350	.544	.893
Jonny DeLuca	4.2	.586	.179	.021	.135	.301	.890	.237	.300	.399	.699
Jorge Mateo	4.1	.547	.174	.010	.111	.259	1.126	.219	.274	.357	.631
Chandler Simpson	4.0	.906	.110	.046	.015	.229	.422	.285	.328	.350	.679
Nick Fortes	3.9	.598	.158	.006	.097	.227	.639	.239	.301	.368	.669
Victor Mesa Jr.	3.8	.523	.130	.029	.142	.316	.853	.239	.308	.417	.725
Taylor Walls	3.7	.461	.121	.017	.051	.377	.948	.199	.288	.293	.582

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections