Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 13, 2026 · Hayden Wesneski vs Freddy Peralta · 72°F

2.6% edge · Houston Astros

Houston Astros win

48.4%

Tampa Bay Rays win

51.5%

Fair line (home)

-106

Proj. total

8.97

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 4.53)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.44)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.97

Over

58.8%

Under

41.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	48.4%	+114	+106
Tampa Bay Rays	51.5%	-123	-106

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Hayden Wesneski RHP · Houston Astros	5.0	3.7	5.5	1.6	2.5
Freddy Peralta RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.2	5.1	4.9	2.1	2.5

Strikeout ladder

Hayden Wesneski4+ 52%6+ 16%8+ 3%

Freddy Peralta4+ 76%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.8	.731	.191	.011	.167	.273	1.048	.250	.305	.412	.717
Yordan Alvarez	4.6	.608	.188	.008	.287	.692	.893	.281	.399	.556	.955
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.565	.157	.007	.209	.519	.784	.239	.343	.443	.786
Jose Altuve	4.4	.651	.153	.013	.154	.372	.921	.241	.312	.401	.712
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.678	.173	.009	.181	.189	.830	.253	.290	.431	.720
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.468	.142	.025	.179	.349	1.070	.211	.282	.401	.683
Christian Walker	4.1	.452	.135	.006	.200	.358	1.120	.215	.295	.418	.713
Cam Smith	4.0	.486	.114	.035	.153	.329	1.119	.218	.292	.396	.688
Taylor Trammell	3.9	.384	.126	.018	.136	.408	1.261	.194	.289	.362	.650

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.831	.189	.010	.184	.447	.720	.295	.371	.480	.851
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.698	.169	.003	.181	.467	1.123	.265	.353	.447	.800
Junior Caminero	4.4	.632	.162	.009	.315	.411	.857	.282	.354	.566	.920
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.3	.610	.149	.028	.195	.319	.938	.249	.309	.449	.758
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.962	.128	.044	.015	.230	.432	.292	.333	.358	.691
Jonny DeLuca	4.1	.598	.171	.016	.130	.255	.873	.242	.296	.399	.695
Richie Palacios	4.0	.554	.141	.018	.095	.436	.784	.232	.325	.365	.690
Nick Madrigal	3.9	.707	.155	.017	.039	.288	.464	.263	.330	.350	.681
Nick Fortes	3.7	.590	.149	.005	.092	.196	.631	.241	.294	.366	.660

Data notes: away starter Hayden Wesneski: only 72 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections