Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 12, 2026 · Peter Lambert vs Ian Seymour · 72°F

2.6% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Houston Astros win

41.1%

Tampa Bay Rays win

58.9%

Fair line (home)

-143

Proj. total

8.45

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 3.88)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.56)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.45

Over

53.8%

Under

46.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	41.1%	+124	+143
Tampa Bay Rays	58.9%	-135	-143

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Peter Lambert RHP · Houston Astros	5.2	4.1	5.6	2.3	2.7
Ian Seymour LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	2.9	2.7	2.5	0.9	1.2

Strikeout ladder

Peter Lambert4+ 59%6+ 23%8+ 5%

Ian Seymour4+ 28%6+ 4%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Houston Astros — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.6	.706	.182	.014	.163	.250	.982	.248	.302	.411	.713
Isaac Paredes	4.5	.559	.153	.008	.202	.475	.757	.235	.333	.432	.765
Jose Altuve	4.4	.645	.156	.010	.158	.344	.894	.240	.305	.401	.707
Yainer Diaz	4.3	.693	.168	.006	.176	.164	.799	.253	.286	.425	.712
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.477	.135	.026	.183	.319	1.050	.213	.278	.403	.681
Christian Walker	4.1	.454	.141	.006	.205	.328	1.096	.217	.291	.424	.715
Cam Smith	4.0	.485	.126	.033	.139	.303	1.097	.215	.283	.382	.666
Taylor Trammell	3.9	.383	.120	.018	.141	.372	1.272	.191	.278	.358	.636
Christian Vázquez	3.8	.506	.112	.004	.089	.227	.827	.203	.257	.314	.571

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.816	.185	.007	.185	.509	.699	.293	.379	.479	.858
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.689	.167	.002	.174	.535	1.141	.264	.363	.441	.805
Junior Caminero	4.4	.618	.151	.009	.309	.466	.839	.277	.359	.557	.916
Liam Hicks	4.3	.694	.141	.012	.121	.518	.571	.261	.365	.403	.768
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.2	.579	.147	.028	.173	.356	.922	.243	.312	.432	.744
Chandler Simpson	4.1	.939	.123	.040	.014	.250	.426	.291	.336	.355	.691
Cedric Mullins	4.0	.505	.131	.021	.136	.425	.887	.225	.316	.390	.705
Richie Palacios	3.9	.541	.137	.018	.086	.474	.748	.233	.336	.362	.698
Jorge Mateo	3.8	.490	.154	.008	.099	.265	1.051	.217	.277	.351	.629

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections