Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Brady Basso vs Nick Martinez · 72°F

4.9% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

42.9%

Tampa Bay Rays win

57.1%

Fair line (home)

-133

Proj. total

8.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 4.20)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.64)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.85

Over

49.5%

Under

43.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	42.9%	+157	+133
Tampa Bay Rays	57.1%	-172	-133

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brady Basso LHP · Athletics	2.2	1.4	2.6	0.6	1.0
Nick Martinez RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.5	3.8	5.9	1.2	2.6

Strikeout ladder

Brady Basso4+ 4%6+ 0%8+ 0%

Nick Martinez4+ 54%6+ 18%8+ 3%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.804	.186	.030	.147	.289	1.197	.269	.324	.427	.751
Jeff McNeil	4.6	.810	.209	.017	.109	.257	.466	.269	.319	.403	.722
Shea Langeliers	4.5	.611	.186	.004	.274	.280	.893	.259	.310	.503	.813
Lawrence Butler	4.4	.626	.180	.014	.179	.343	.986	.249	.311	.435	.745
Zack Gelof	4.3	.604	.169	.019	.182	.289	1.055	.247	.303	.438	.741
Donovan Walton	4.2	.647	.154	.012	.118	.304	.602	.244	.308	.384	.692
Tommy White	4.0	.722	.165	.008	.114	.122	.607	.259	.286	.393	.679
Carlos Cortes	3.9	.571	.165	.010	.141	.258	.664	.243	.298	.410	.708
Brian Serven	3.8	.520	.129	.008	.110	.231	1.043	.217	.272	.351	.623

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.917	.205	.009	.157	.472	.619	.312	.389	.480	.869
Ryan Vilade	4.5	.719	.185	.031	.130	.405	1.000	.260	.333	.416	.749
Junior Caminero	4.4	.695	.180	.008	.282	.453	.753	.296	.372	.560	.932
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.690	.203	.019	.125	.301	.798	.261	.319	.415	.734
Chandler Simpson	4.2	1.044	.134	.047	.015	.248	.362	.314	.356	.383	.740
Nick Madrigal	4.1	.816	.178	.024	.036	.327	.411	.284	.353	.374	.727
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.0	.634	.160	.035	.155	.328	.771	.269	.333	.459	.792
Jorge Mateo	3.9	.578	.181	.012	.100	.259	.981	.241	.296	.380	.677
Nick Fortes	3.8	.645	.168	.006	.096	.220	.542	.262	.318	.396	.714

Data notes: away starter Brady Basso: only 62 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections