Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Jack Perkins vs Griffin Jax · 72°F

1.3% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

34.1%

Tampa Bay Rays win

65.9%

Fair line (home)

-194

Proj. total

8.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.76)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 5.09)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.85

Over

49.7%

Under

43.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	34.1%	+199	+194
Tampa Bay Rays	65.9%	-220	-194

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jack Perkins RHP · Athletics	3.0	2.5	3.4	1.6	1.7
Griffin Jax RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	3.3	3.5	2.9	1.1	1.2

Strikeout ladder

Jack Perkins4+ 24%6+ 3%8+ 0%

Griffin Jax4+ 47%6+ 12%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.701	.167	.024	.133	.345	1.487	.242	.309	.387	.696
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.752	.189	.014	.091	.325	.610	.252	.317	.370	.687
Shea Langeliers	4.4	.545	.168	.005	.234	.344	1.131	.235	.300	.453	.753
Lawrence Butler	4.3	.553	.158	.012	.148	.413	1.215	.223	.300	.383	.683
Zack Gelof	4.2	.522	.152	.013	.164	.346	1.280	.221	.290	.395	.686
Donovan Walton	4.1	.583	.144	.013	.092	.366	.777	.224	.303	.344	.647
Carlos Cortes	4.0	.539	.160	.011	.126	.312	.858	.228	.294	.380	.674
Jonah Heim	3.9	.509	.130	.004	.116	.269	.814	.211	.270	.346	.616
Alika Williams	3.8	.575	.164	.014	.071	.205	.841	.234	.283	.349	.632

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.905	.204	.011	.169	.531	.657	.313	.400	.491	.891
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.771	.196	.003	.162	.569	1.073	.285	.385	.459	.844
Junior Caminero	4.5	.683	.186	.009	.290	.497	.801	.294	.377	.564	.941
Liam Hicks	4.4	.770	.159	.012	.113	.556	.533	.281	.385	.420	.805
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.3	.657	.168	.035	.176	.388	.848	.268	.339	.465	.804
Chandler Simpson	4.2	1.023	.134	.050	.015	.260	.370	.313	.358	.384	.741
Richie Palacios	4.1	.625	.160	.022	.091	.505	.721	.255	.357	.391	.748
Jorge Mateo	4.0	.570	.186	.009	.105	.278	1.023	.238	.297	.380	.677
Cedric Mullins	3.8	.536	.142	.028	.117	.412	.790	.242	.331	.404	.734

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections