Athletics vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 17, 2026 · Jeffrey Springs vs Drew Rasmussen · 72°F

0.8% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

30.2%

Tampa Bay Rays win

69.8%

Fair line (home)

-231

Proj. total

8.51

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.36)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 5.15)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.51

Over

54.3%

Under

45.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	30.2%	+233	+231
Tampa Bay Rays	69.8%	-260	-231

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jeffrey Springs LHP · Athletics	4.8	3.3	5.8	1.8	2.8
Drew Rasmussen RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.4	5.3	4.9	1.1	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Jeffrey Springs4+ 43%6+ 11%8+ 2%

Drew Rasmussen4+ 80%6+ 44%8+ 15%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.6	.730	.168	.026	.120	.266	1.455	.247	.302	.384	.686
Jeff McNeil	4.5	.785	.195	.015	.090	.249	.594	.261	.312	.380	.693
Lawrence Butler	4.4	.574	.166	.011	.154	.339	1.224	.226	.288	.388	.676
Zack Gelof	4.3	.565	.152	.014	.162	.278	1.274	.226	.282	.394	.676
Donovan Walton	4.2	.625	.150	.014	.098	.305	.775	.233	.298	.357	.656
Tommy White	4.0	.677	.160	.008	.092	.132	.770	.241	.271	.356	.628
Alika Williams	3.9	.617	.170	.017	.067	.182	.858	.235	.278	.344	.621
Jonah Heim	3.8	.511	.125	.003	.108	.215	.813	.209	.258	.336	.594
Denzel Clarke	3.7	.496	.122	.030	.080	.219	1.305	.212	.268	.335	.603

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.931	.213	.011	.190	.448	.582	.322	.393	.515	.908
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.802	.195	.004	.189	.487	.989	.296	.380	.488	.868
Junior Caminero	4.5	.701	.182	.009	.346	.416	.722	.308	.377	.616	.993
Liam Hicks	4.3	.785	.165	.013	.137	.462	.482	.288	.374	.445	.818
Jonny DeLuca	4.2	.684	.201	.022	.142	.276	.754	.267	.320	.438	.758
Chandler Simpson	4.1	1.035	.138	.047	.018	.211	.347	.317	.353	.389	.743
Ryan Vilade	4.0	.649	.170	.027	.141	.355	.845	.272	.341	.450	.791
Richie Palacios	3.9	.605	.163	.020	.102	.446	.635	.260	.351	.408	.759
Taylor Walls	3.8	.563	.151	.019	.053	.368	.842	.231	.310	.334	.643

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections