Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 18, 2026 · Ranger Suarez vs Ian Seymour · 72°F

2.4% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox win

42.0%

Tampa Bay Rays win

58.0%

Fair line (home)

-138

Proj. total

7.7

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 3.59)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.11)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

7.7

Over

46.1%

Under

41.8%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	42.0%	+121	+138
Tampa Bay Rays	58.0%	-131	-138

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ranger Suarez LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.0	4.0	5.5	1.4	2.2
Ian Seymour LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	2.9	3.0	2.5	0.9	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Ranger Suarez4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Ian Seymour4+ 36%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.605	.177	.028	.138	.550	1.291	.233	.329	.392	.721
Nick Sogard	4.6	.650	.166	.011	.067	.420	1.089	.219	.298	.314	.612
Jahmai Jones	4.4	.533	.166	.029	.148	.399	1.288	.221	.304	.389	.693
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.533	.180	.018	.176	.422	1.057	.233	.312	.424	.736
Trevor Story	4.2	.567	.166	.004	.126	.224	1.300	.217	.266	.356	.622
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.603	.167	.012	.096	.314	.591	.237	.316	.366	.682
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4.0	.707	.137	.012	.053	.225	.716	.242	.292	.327	.620
Nate Eaton	3.9	.516	.144	.021	.090	.225	1.065	.212	.266	.337	.604
Connor Wong	3.8	.530	.152	.007	.087	.232	1.027	.222	.281	.344	.625

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.888	.202	.009	.124	.416	.707	.298	.368	.441	.809
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.756	.183	.004	.120	.454	1.135	.270	.353	.409	.763
Junior Caminero	4.3	.683	.173	.008	.233	.388	.854	.278	.347	.503	.850
Ryan Vilade	4.3	.645	.174	.028	.102	.339	1.050	.245	.311	.383	.694
Chandler Simpson	4.2	1.038	.137	.046	.012	.205	.406	.313	.349	.380	.729
Jonny DeLuca	4.0	.644	.195	.019	.097	.235	.847	.253	.303	.392	.695
Nick Fortes	3.9	.684	.167	.006	.081	.197	.638	.255	.304	.370	.674
Victor Mesa Jr.	3.8	.580	.149	.033	.117	.282	.827	.251	.311	.412	.723
Taylor Walls	3.7	.537	.140	.015	.036	.327	.954	.218	.293	.301	.594

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections