Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Patrick Sandoval vs Griffin Jax · 72°F

0.0% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

41.4%

Tampa Bay Rays win

58.6%

Fair line (home)

-142

Proj. total

7.65

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 3.52)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.13)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

7.65

Over

45.0%

Under

55.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	41.4%	+137	+142
Tampa Bay Rays	58.6%	-149	-142

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Patrick Sandoval LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.0	4.0	5.3	1.9	2.3
Griffin Jax RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	3.3	3.5	2.9	1.2	1.1

Strikeout ladder

Patrick Sandoval4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Griffin Jax4+ 46%6+ 12%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.615	.183	.029	.137	.547	1.323	.236	.331	.395	.726
Mickey Gasper	4.6	.617	.173	.009	.128	.469	.971	.230	.321	.373	.694
Adley Rutschman	4.5	.610	.183	.018	.123	.466	.816	.235	.319	.383	.702
Trevor Story	4.3	.599	.173	.004	.114	.233	1.354	.218	.267	.347	.614
Nick Sogard	4.3	.580	.155	.014	.058	.424	1.046	.213	.298	.307	.605
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.611	.177	.010	.090	.318	.612	.239	.315	.365	.680
Jarren Duran	4.0	.495	.155	.051	.102	.300	1.144	.218	.285	.371	.656
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.9	.688	.138	.012	.044	.226	.731	.242	.293	.323	.616
Nate Eaton	3.8	.487	.142	.020	.073	.235	1.062	.205	.263	.319	.582

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.6	.851	.193	.009	.129	.506	.725	.292	.377	.440	.816
Ryan Vilade	4.5	.671	.173	.028	.109	.431	1.138	.244	.323	.383	.706
Junior Caminero	4.4	.666	.168	.008	.241	.481	.832	.280	.363	.514	.878
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.650	.198	.020	.104	.310	.907	.247	.308	.387	.695
Chandler Simpson	4.2	1.013	.136	.046	.012	.251	.412	.309	.352	.376	.729
Ben Williamson	4.1	.736	.197	.019	.042	.321	.856	.268	.331	.365	.696
Nick Fortes	4.0	.659	.169	.007	.081	.249	.652	.252	.311	.369	.680
Victor Mesa Jr.	3.8	.568	.143	.032	.120	.346	.848	.249	.320	.412	.733
Taylor Walls	3.7	.516	.136	.013	.035	.413	.956	.214	.306	.296	.602

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections