Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · Brayan Bello vs Freddy Peralta · 72°F

1.5% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Boston Red Sox win

39.7%

Tampa Bay Rays win

60.3%

Fair line (home)

-152

Proj. total

8.43

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 3.87)Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.56)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.43

Over

52.9%

Under

47.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	39.7%	+138	+152
Tampa Bay Rays	60.3%	-150	-152

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brayan Bello RHP · Boston Red Sox	4.2	3.0	4.9	1.6	2.2
Freddy Peralta RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.2	5.0	4.7	2.2	2.1

Strikeout ladder

Brayan Bello4+ 35%6+ 7%8+ 1%

Freddy Peralta4+ 76%6+ 39%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.613	.179	.032	.148	.600	1.306	.237	.339	.404	.744
Mickey Gasper	4.6	.615	.178	.010	.139	.507	.937	.233	.331	.386	.716
Adley Rutschman	4.5	.611	.183	.018	.139	.503	.820	.239	.328	.399	.727
Wilyer Abreu	4.4	.520	.178	.018	.181	.462	1.071	.229	.315	.423	.738
Nick Sogard	4.3	.607	.157	.013	.065	.445	1.012	.221	.308	.320	.628
Trevor Story	4.2	.566	.165	.003	.118	.241	1.305	.217	.270	.351	.621
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.590	.171	.011	.098	.326	.589	.239	.320	.372	.692
Jarren Duran	4.0	.472	.165	.048	.113	.298	1.107	.220	.287	.385	.671
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	3.9	.668	.138	.013	.045	.239	.697	.241	.296	.325	.621

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.924	.215	.009	.129	.451	.668	.307	.381	.456	.837
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.781	.205	.003	.131	.483	1.080	.280	.369	.432	.801
Junior Caminero	4.4	.704	.184	.008	.240	.435	.826	.286	.361	.517	.878
Liam Hicks	4.3	.770	.164	.015	.088	.472	.550	.275	.368	.396	.764
Chandler Simpson	4.2	1.065	.146	.045	.011	.234	.384	.318	.357	.385	.742
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.1	.652	.161	.035	.136	.317	.849	.260	.323	.429	.752
Richie Palacios	4.0	.626	.163	.020	.070	.467	.718	.251	.346	.369	.715
Cedric Mullins	3.9	.552	.146	.025	.104	.374	.833	.237	.317	.382	.700
Jorge Mateo	3.8	.557	.181	.011	.077	.226	1.020	.234	.284	.356	.640

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections