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0.4% edge · Texas RangersDetroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds
July 4, 2026 · Jack Flaherty vs Cal Quantrill · 85°F
Detroit Tigers win
53.3%
Texas Rangers win
46.7%
Fair line (home)
+114
Proj. total
8.76
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Detroit Tigers (mean 4.68)Texas Rangers (mean 4.08)
Totals
O/U line
8
Proj. total
8.76
Over
43.2%
Under
48.8%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Tigers | 53.3% | -121 | -114 |
| Texas Rangers | 46.7% | +112 | +114 |
Detroit Tigers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin McGonigle | 4.8 | .805 | .223 | .039 | .114 | .579 | .618 | .280 | .371 | .432 | .803 |
| Dillon Dingler | 4.7 | .697 | .208 | .011 | .196 | .330 | 1.009 | .256 | .319 | .445 | .764 |
| Kerry Carpenter | 4.6 | .655 | .153 | .045 | .240 | .320 | 1.107 | .258 | .320 | .486 | .806 |
| Riley Greene | 4.5 | .704 | .205 | .013 | .191 | .440 | 1.126 | .276 | .352 | .475 | .826 |
| Spencer Torkelson | 4.4 | .536 | .179 | .006 | .183 | .490 | 1.125 | .234 | .328 | .426 | .753 |
| Colt Keith | 4.3 | .726 | .171 | .031 | .113 | .369 | .794 | .267 | .334 | .413 | .747 |
| Zach McKinstry | 4.2 | .614 | .138 | .051 | .079 | .386 | .810 | .234 | .312 | .361 | .673 |
| Ben Malgeri | 4.1 | .606 | .183 | .030 | .090 | .311 | 1.071 | .244 | .310 | .382 | .692 |
| James Outman | 4.0 | .462 | .133 | .022 | .123 | .386 | 1.304 | .211 | .299 | .366 | .665 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.6 | .584 | .138 | .023 | .206 | .589 | 1.095 | .241 | .352 | .445 | .797 |
| Josh Smith | 4.5 | .686 | .169 | .013 | .092 | .496 | .923 | .245 | .343 | .365 | .708 |
| Josh Jung | 4.4 | .736 | .199 | .008 | .145 | .284 | 1.033 | .267 | .320 | .426 | .746 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.3 | .645 | .156 | .015 | .148 | .439 | .992 | .254 | .341 | .421 | .762 |
| Alejandro Osuna | 4.2 | .682 | .168 | .013 | .083 | .427 | .868 | .256 | .343 | .377 | .720 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.1 | .649 | .199 | .023 | .090 | .241 | 1.044 | .253 | .305 | .388 | .693 |
| Evan Carter | 4.0 | .516 | .142 | .038 | .112 | .466 | .953 | .234 | .334 | .393 | .727 |
| Elias Díaz | 3.9 | .550 | .139 | .006 | .106 | .265 | 1.017 | .224 | .284 | .355 | .639 |
| Nicky Lopez | 3.7 | .657 | .124 | .018 | .021 | .325 | .659 | .243 | .318 | .309 | .627 |
Data notes: home starter Cal Quantrill: only 70 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections