Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

July 5, 2026 · Casey Mize vs Kumar Rocker · 85°F

0.5% edge · Detroit Tigers

Detroit Tigers win

53.3%

Texas Rangers win

46.7%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

8.76

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Detroit Tigers (mean 4.67)Texas Rangers (mean 4.09)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.76

Over

47.8%

Under

52.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Detroit Tigers	53.3%	-117	-114
Texas Rangers	46.7%	+108	+114

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Kevin McGonigle	4.8	.803	.238	.046	.111	.591	.613	.283	.375	.440	.815
Dillon Dingler	4.7	.727	.210	.014	.183	.338	1.003	.261	.324	.443	.766
Kerry Carpenter	4.6	.665	.155	.051	.226	.327	1.085	.259	.320	.479	.799
Riley Greene	4.5	.716	.206	.012	.186	.454	1.153	.278	.355	.474	.829
Spencer Torkelson	4.4	.536	.179	.005	.181	.505	1.159	.233	.329	.423	.752
Colt Keith	4.3	.746	.171	.031	.110	.371	.797	.270	.338	.415	.752
Zach McKinstry	4.2	.631	.147	.052	.079	.390	.808	.241	.317	.370	.687
Jake Rogers	4.1	.517	.142	.024	.122	.342	1.118	.217	.289	.368	.657
James Outman	4.0	.468	.139	.021	.123	.402	1.296	.214	.304	.370	.674

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.6	.624	.144	.026	.205	.496	1.007	.250	.343	.453	.796
Josh Jung	4.5	.787	.208	.009	.149	.234	.964	.275	.318	.435	.754
Brandon Nimmo	4.4	.696	.167	.018	.155	.396	.926	.265	.340	.436	.776
Jake Burger	4.3	.623	.172	.007	.200	.232	1.042	.252	.300	.449	.749
Ezequiel Duran	4.2	.700	.219	.021	.091	.219	.971	.264	.308	.401	.709
Evan Carter	4.0	.567	.151	.037	.117	.408	.909	.243	.329	.404	.733
Josh Smith	3.9	.640	.159	.012	.077	.362	.740	.253	.335	.372	.707
Elias Díaz	3.8	.562	.140	.006	.109	.222	.945	.229	.278	.362	.641
Nicky Lopez	3.7	.671	.125	.018	.023	.287	.606	.249	.314	.317	.631

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections