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0.7% edge · Houston AstrosHouston Astros vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds
July 10, 2026 · Hunter Brown vs Cal Quantrill · 85°F
Houston Astros win
57.2%
Texas Rangers win
42.8%
Fair line (home)
+134
Proj. total
9.54
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Houston Astros (mean 5.26)Texas Rangers (mean 4.28)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.54
Over
48.4%
Under
51.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 57.2% | -136 | -134 |
| Texas Rangers | 42.8% | +125 | +134 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.9 | .868 | .222 | .012 | .170 | .296 | .794 | .282 | .337 | .449 | .786 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.8 | .737 | .219 | .007 | .328 | .635 | .759 | .316 | .416 | .614 | 1.029 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.7 | .640 | .182 | .007 | .220 | .518 | .732 | .258 | .357 | .469 | .826 |
| Christian Walker | 4.6 | .575 | .169 | .010 | .252 | .379 | 1.054 | .243 | .317 | .472 | .788 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.5 | .719 | .169 | .011 | .172 | .382 | .770 | .264 | .332 | .437 | .769 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 4.4 | .574 | .136 | .013 | .134 | .608 | 1.038 | .231 | .346 | .383 | .729 |
| Cam Smith | 4.3 | .632 | .175 | .022 | .146 | .356 | .993 | .253 | .325 | .424 | .749 |
| Yainer Diaz | 4.1 | .715 | .189 | .008 | .174 | .165 | .652 | .275 | .309 | .460 | .769 |
| Brice Matthews | 4.0 | .517 | .124 | .026 | .138 | .340 | 1.214 | .222 | .295 | .384 | .680 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.6 | .564 | .126 | .022 | .226 | .579 | 1.222 | .237 | .345 | .450 | .796 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.5 | .598 | .174 | .023 | .195 | .541 | 1.166 | .252 | .348 | .457 | .805 |
| Josh Jung | 4.4 | .700 | .197 | .007 | .158 | .308 | 1.122 | .262 | .320 | .432 | .752 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.3 | .632 | .158 | .019 | .154 | .438 | 1.069 | .254 | .339 | .427 | .766 |
| Jake Burger | 4.2 | .548 | .150 | .006 | .212 | .294 | 1.200 | .238 | .301 | .445 | .746 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.1 | .625 | .182 | .017 | .114 | .265 | 1.084 | .248 | .303 | .395 | .698 |
| Evan Carter | 4.0 | .509 | .124 | .033 | .120 | .472 | 1.050 | .228 | .331 | .388 | .719 |
| Nicky Lopez | 3.9 | .685 | .126 | .017 | .022 | .326 | .713 | .244 | .316 | .309 | .625 |
| Kyle Higashioka | 3.7 | .480 | .121 | .011 | .147 | .287 | 1.032 | .221 | .286 | .391 | .678 |
Data notes: away starter Hunter Brown: only 69 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Hunter Brown: only 59 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections