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2.9% edge · Houston AstrosHouston Astros vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds
July 12, 2026 · Cristian Javier vs MacKenzie Gore · 84°F
Houston Astros win
46.9%
Texas Rangers win
53.1%
Fair line (home)
-113
Proj. total
9.53
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Houston Astros (mean 4.74)Texas Rangers (mean 4.79)
Totals
O/U line
9
Proj. total
9.53
Over
42.6%
Under
47.5%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Astros | 46.9% | +123 | +113 |
| Texas Rangers | 53.1% | -133 | -113 |
Houston Astros — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Peña | 4.8 | .821 | .200 | .013 | .154 | .323 | .964 | .267 | .327 | .421 | .747 |
| Yordan Alvarez | 4.7 | .673 | .191 | .008 | .303 | .691 | .898 | .295 | .407 | .576 | .983 |
| Isaac Paredes | 4.6 | .597 | .164 | .006 | .210 | .552 | .870 | .246 | .351 | .448 | .799 |
| Christian Walker | 4.5 | .552 | .151 | .010 | .238 | .415 | 1.211 | .235 | .315 | .454 | .769 |
| Jose Altuve | 4.4 | .691 | .152 | .010 | .159 | .409 | .898 | .255 | .329 | .418 | .747 |
| Cam Smith | 4.3 | .597 | .160 | .021 | .142 | .396 | 1.170 | .238 | .317 | .401 | .718 |
| LaMonte Wade Jr. | 4.2 | .515 | .125 | .013 | .121 | .596 | 1.153 | .217 | .335 | .361 | .697 |
| Brice Matthews | 4.1 | .494 | .114 | .025 | .136 | .363 | 1.377 | .209 | .286 | .364 | .650 |
| Christian Vázquez | 4.0 | .591 | .128 | .006 | .097 | .279 | .862 | .224 | .283 | .341 | .624 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.7 | .562 | .129 | .022 | .272 | .622 | 1.115 | .249 | .362 | .499 | .862 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.5 | .593 | .166 | .022 | .233 | .570 | 1.079 | .259 | .358 | .490 | .849 |
| Josh Jung | 4.4 | .711 | .187 | .007 | .190 | .341 | 1.030 | .271 | .333 | .461 | .795 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.3 | .622 | .159 | .018 | .186 | .483 | .970 | .261 | .354 | .460 | .814 |
| Jake Burger | 4.2 | .559 | .157 | .007 | .253 | .314 | 1.114 | .254 | .319 | .495 | .814 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.1 | .628 | .183 | .019 | .130 | .283 | 1.002 | .254 | .312 | .415 | .727 |
| Evan Carter | 4.0 | .492 | .126 | .033 | .147 | .509 | .985 | .233 | .342 | .417 | .758 |
| Nicky Lopez | 3.9 | .697 | .117 | .018 | .032 | .357 | .659 | .248 | .325 | .319 | .643 |
| Kyle Higashioka | 3.8 | .478 | .118 | .011 | .183 | .308 | .973 | .230 | .298 | .430 | .728 |
Data notes: away starter Cristian Javier: only 30 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Cristian Javier: only 33 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections