Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

July 11, 2026 · Peter Lambert vs Kumar Rocker · 85°F

0.3% edge · Texas Rangers

Houston Astros win

48.1%

Texas Rangers win

51.9%

Fair line (home)

-108

Proj. total

9.97

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Houston Astros (mean 5.04)Texas Rangers (mean 4.93)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.97

Over

50.0%

Under

50.0%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Houston Astros	48.1%	+103	+108
Texas Rangers	51.9%	-111	-108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jeremy Peña	4.9	.877	.224	.014	.158	.295	.801	.283	.338	.444	.782
Yordan Alvarez	4.8	.740	.217	.007	.307	.642	.761	.313	.414	.597	1.011
Isaac Paredes	4.7	.647	.176	.007	.207	.516	.753	.256	.354	.456	.810
Christian Walker	4.5	.579	.167	.009	.234	.394	1.075	.241	.316	.458	.774
Jose Altuve	4.4	.737	.180	.012	.159	.375	.776	.269	.336	.437	.773
LaMonte Wade Jr.	4.3	.572	.136	.015	.128	.606	1.046	.231	.346	.380	.726
Yainer Diaz	4.2	.734	.186	.010	.170	.180	.684	.273	.308	.451	.759
Taylor Trammell	4.1	.479	.151	.021	.147	.437	1.254	.219	.309	.393	.702
Christian Vázquez	4.0	.635	.136	.006	.100	.265	.745	.237	.293	.358	.651

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.7	.587	.129	.024	.267	.627	1.048	.253	.366	.499	.865
Wyatt Langford	4.6	.647	.174	.026	.218	.577	.985	.270	.368	.492	.860
Josh Jung	4.5	.742	.200	.007	.187	.335	.973	.278	.339	.468	.807
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.661	.172	.018	.186	.477	.915	.273	.362	.474	.836
Jake Burger	4.2	.597	.165	.004	.251	.315	1.045	.262	.327	.501	.828
Ezequiel Duran	4.1	.670	.187	.020	.128	.266	.952	.262	.317	.422	.739
Evan Carter	4.0	.531	.143	.037	.143	.512	.918	.247	.354	.434	.788
Nicky Lopez	3.9	.721	.129	.022	.030	.356	.614	.256	.333	.331	.663
Elias Díaz	3.8	.547	.146	.005	.135	.279	.908	.238	.300	.398	.698

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections