Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

July 22, 2026 · Anthony Kay vs Tyler Alexander · 85°F

0.4% edge · Chicago White Sox

Chicago White Sox win

50.1%

Texas Rangers win

49.9%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

9.13

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.70)Texas Rangers (mean 4.43)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.13

Over

42.2%

Under

48.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	50.1%	-103	-101
Texas Rangers	49.9%	-105	+101

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.9	.875	.180	.030	.090	.444	.745	.276	.365	.396	.761
Munetaka Murakami	4.8	.532	.122	.006	.326	.651	1.365	.242	.352	.516	.867
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.615	.210	.013	.195	.546	.791	.255	.350	.457	.807
Colson Montgomery	4.5	.531	.149	.011	.243	.372	1.284	.228	.304	.448	.752
Braden Montgomery	4.4	.645	.186	.013	.109	.359	1.162	.237	.307	.372	.679
Chase Meidroth	4.3	.760	.164	.004	.087	.445	.746	.266	.350	.379	.729
Andrew Benintendi	4.2	.669	.150	.024	.152	.347	.771	.259	.324	.430	.754
Edgar Quero	4.1	.692	.138	.004	.091	.311	.796	.248	.315	.360	.675
Tristan Peters	4.0	.612	.171	.024	.090	.316	.794	.247	.312	.381	.694

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wyatt Langford	4.7	.694	.191	.025	.191	.578	.946	.273	.371	.476	.847
Justin Foscue	4.5	.625	.223	.006	.139	.469	.822	.248	.338	.412	.750
Jake Burger	4.4	.659	.179	.008	.223	.312	1.002	.264	.327	.477	.804
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.698	.168	.017	.155	.452	.830	.273	.361	.449	.809
Ezequiel Duran	4.2	.710	.208	.025	.109	.277	.878	.270	.327	.421	.748
Cam Cauley	4.1	.591	.154	.036	.082	.352	.989	.231	.303	.358	.661
Elias Díaz	4.0	.616	.164	.006	.114	.270	.865	.244	.303	.384	.687
Alejandro Osuna	3.9	.683	.152	.009	.067	.396	.648	.267	.355	.376	.731
Nicky Lopez	3.8	.715	.128	.019	.024	.327	.530	.261	.334	.330	.665

Data notes: home starter Tyler Alexander: only 74 BF vs LHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections