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1.3% edge · Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds
July 24, 2026 · Bryce Miller vs MacKenzie Gore · 85°F
Seattle Mariners win
52.3%
Texas Rangers win
47.8%
Fair line (home)
+109
Proj. total
8.6
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Seattle Mariners (mean 4.54)Texas Rangers (mean 4.06)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.6
Over
54.8%
Under
45.3%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Mariners | 52.3% | -108 | -109 |
| Texas Rangers | 47.8% | -100 | +109 |
Seattle Mariners — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Arozarena | 4.8 | .631 | .187 | .010 | .178 | .510 | 1.321 | .241 | .341 | .419 | .760 |
| Julio Rodríguez | 4.7 | .722 | .179 | .012 | .234 | .360 | 1.109 | .269 | .333 | .480 | .813 |
| Dominic Canzone | 4.6 | .638 | .182 | .009 | .229 | .382 | 1.122 | .254 | .321 | .468 | .789 |
| Cal Raleigh | 4.5 | .450 | .127 | .002 | .265 | .508 | 1.357 | .216 | .312 | .452 | .764 |
| Josh Naylor | 4.4 | .691 | .168 | .004 | .178 | .396 | .705 | .265 | .337 | .445 | .783 |
| Cole Young | 4.3 | .649 | .167 | .015 | .104 | .395 | .830 | .246 | .325 | .380 | .704 |
| Mitch Garver | 4.1 | .453 | .109 | .017 | .160 | .505 | 1.285 | .205 | .310 | .378 | .688 |
| Weston Wilson | 4.0 | .475 | .112 | .008 | .126 | .393 | 1.264 | .200 | .283 | .340 | .622 |
| Colt Emerson | 3.9 | .516 | .130 | .014 | .108 | .352 | 1.183 | .219 | .298 | .356 | .654 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joc Pederson | 4.5 | .585 | .132 | .024 | .231 | .484 | 1.098 | .243 | .335 | .462 | .798 |
| Wyatt Langford | 4.4 | .633 | .182 | .026 | .192 | .454 | 1.036 | .262 | .343 | .467 | .809 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.3 | .689 | .210 | .020 | .124 | .230 | 1.042 | .257 | .302 | .410 | .712 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.2 | .653 | .167 | .018 | .158 | .363 | .955 | .262 | .334 | .440 | .773 |
| Evan Carter | 4.1 | .555 | .135 | .038 | .136 | .424 | .998 | .237 | .326 | .407 | .733 |
| Jake Burger | 4.0 | .559 | .158 | .005 | .212 | .242 | 1.035 | .250 | .304 | .466 | .769 |
| Nicky Lopez | 3.9 | .725 | .130 | .018 | .028 | .281 | .645 | .251 | .313 | .321 | .633 |
| Elias Díaz | 3.8 | .545 | .135 | .005 | .124 | .210 | .945 | .228 | .276 | .373 | .650 |
| Cam Cauley | 3.7 | .494 | .131 | .030 | .084 | .262 | 1.002 | .218 | .278 | .349 | .627 |
Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections