Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

July 26, 2026 · Logan Gilbert vs Jacob deGrom · 85°F

2.7% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

51.8%

Texas Rangers win

48.2%

Fair line (home)

+107

Proj. total

8.24

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.33)Texas Rangers (mean 3.91)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.24

Over

50.7%

Under

49.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	51.8%	-100	-107
Texas Rangers	48.2%	-108	+107

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.7	.733	.179	.018	.129	.343	1.002	.246	.309	.385	.694
Julio Rodríguez	4.6	.701	.180	.013	.252	.268	1.160	.268	.317	.492	.808
Dominic Canzone	4.5	.616	.170	.010	.231	.288	1.177	.246	.299	.458	.756
Randy Arozarena	4.4	.572	.172	.009	.163	.355	1.280	.233	.313	.406	.719
Josh Naylor	4.3	.684	.167	.003	.184	.285	.759	.262	.316	.444	.760
Cal Raleigh	4.2	.419	.121	.003	.271	.404	1.345	.217	.299	.468	.767
Luke Raley	4.1	.488	.137	.010	.179	.238	1.424	.218	.281	.404	.685
J.P. Crawford	3.9	.577	.132	.004	.103	.407	.925	.233	.317	.362	.679
Colt Emerson	3.8	.485	.129	.018	.111	.267	1.210	.211	.273	.351	.624

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.5	.568	.125	.022	.235	.421	1.183	.237	.321	.455	.776
Wyatt Langford	4.4	.603	.170	.023	.198	.406	1.144	.251	.326	.456	.783
Ezequiel Duran	4.3	.668	.200	.020	.112	.202	1.125	.247	.289	.389	.678
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.623	.158	.017	.151	.330	1.045	.249	.318	.419	.737
Jake Burger	4.1	.565	.151	.006	.213	.221	1.157	.245	.294	.455	.748
Evan Carter	4.0	.523	.133	.038	.131	.368	1.053	.232	.314	.402	.715
Nicky Lopez	3.9	.719	.124	.017	.026	.250	.708	.248	.304	.314	.618
Josh Smith	3.8	.571	.138	.014	.091	.315	.826	.242	.319	.373	.692
Elias Díaz	3.6	.516	.129	.005	.108	.183	.971	.222	.268	.358	.626

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections