Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

July 27, 2026 · George Kirby vs Kumar Rocker · 85°F

0.3% edge · Seattle Mariners

Seattle Mariners win

55.4%

Texas Rangers win

44.6%

Fair line (home)

+124

Proj. total

8.87

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Seattle Mariners (mean 4.85)Texas Rangers (mean 4.03)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.87

Over

50.0%

Under

42.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Seattle Mariners	55.4%	-128	-124
Texas Rangers	44.6%	+118	+124

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Cole Young	4.9	.821	.201	.022	.126	.438	.800	.268	.342	.410	.752
Julio Rodríguez	4.8	.799	.197	.014	.236	.347	.955	.286	.345	.499	.844
Dominic Canzone	4.7	.706	.198	.010	.228	.360	.973	.268	.330	.480	.810
Randy Arozarena	4.5	.652	.191	.010	.167	.461	1.061	.258	.354	.438	.792
Josh Naylor	4.4	.751	.190	.004	.172	.365	.606	.277	.342	.454	.796
Luke Raley	4.3	.566	.150	.014	.191	.292	1.283	.236	.308	.427	.736
Mitch Garver	4.2	.496	.117	.016	.162	.493	1.145	.215	.315	.388	.702
J.P. Crawford	4.1	.625	.155	.004	.093	.511	.782	.247	.347	.372	.719
Colt Emerson	4.0	.548	.152	.019	.109	.335	1.060	.229	.303	.373	.676

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.5	.640	.137	.023	.226	.399	1.081	.253	.330	.464	.795
Wyatt Langford	4.4	.662	.181	.025	.192	.359	1.043	.263	.329	.464	.792
Ezequiel Duran	4.3	.717	.213	.019	.107	.180	1.018	.258	.296	.398	.695
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.690	.168	.018	.150	.296	.936	.266	.326	.435	.761
Evan Carter	4.1	.582	.148	.037	.129	.345	1.000	.241	.315	.406	.720
Jake Burger	4.0	.579	.167	.007	.192	.196	1.029	.251	.297	.453	.750
Nicky Lopez	3.9	.743	.133	.022	.023	.230	.625	.254	.307	.323	.629
Josh Smith	3.8	.598	.143	.017	.089	.287	.759	.247	.317	.376	.693
Elias Díaz	3.7	.535	.148	.005	.107	.165	.897	.230	.271	.368	.639

Data notes: game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections