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5.3% edge · Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds
August 9, 2026 · Cade Povich vs Kumar Rocker · 85°F
Baltimore Orioles win
50.0%
Texas Rangers win
50.0%
Fair line (home)
+100
Proj. total
9.64
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Baltimore Orioles (mean 4.98)Texas Rangers (mean 4.66)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
9.64
Over
56.1%
Under
43.9%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 50.0% | +119 | -100 |
| Texas Rangers | 50.0% | -129 | +100 |
Baltimore Orioles — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gunnar Henderson | 4.9 | .752 | .212 | .035 | .208 | .477 | .950 | .277 | .354 | .484 | .838 |
| Pete Alonso | 4.8 | .647 | .204 | .007 | .278 | .477 | 1.046 | .269 | .353 | .518 | .871 |
| Jackson Holliday | 4.7 | .709 | .171 | .034 | .139 | .498 | .997 | .255 | .340 | .414 | .754 |
| Tyler O'Neill | 4.5 | .593 | .164 | .009 | .224 | .490 | 1.210 | .246 | .335 | .459 | .794 |
| Dylan Beavers | 4.5 | .675 | .183 | .015 | .136 | .538 | .958 | .260 | .353 | .420 | .772 |
| Leody Taveras | 4.3 | .708 | .142 | .052 | .099 | .329 | .897 | .251 | .310 | .387 | .697 |
| Coby Mayo | 4.2 | .521 | .188 | .011 | .197 | .371 | 1.145 | .240 | .314 | .450 | .764 |
| Colton Cowser | 4.1 | .570 | .150 | .007 | .167 | .432 | 1.167 | .246 | .332 | .429 | .761 |
| Carlos Narváez | 4.0 | .538 | .173 | .005 | .112 | .372 | 1.044 | .231 | .310 | .376 | .686 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Langford | 4.6 | .677 | .196 | .025 | .216 | .535 | 1.033 | .274 | .362 | .493 | .856 |
| Corey Seager | 4.5 | .679 | .182 | .004 | .237 | .505 | .906 | .276 | .362 | .502 | .864 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.4 | .753 | .218 | .022 | .132 | .256 | 1.007 | .273 | .320 | .432 | .752 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.3 | .692 | .174 | .023 | .164 | .414 | .903 | .274 | .351 | .459 | .810 |
| Jake Burger | 4.2 | .618 | .164 | .006 | .234 | .289 | 1.053 | .263 | .320 | .489 | .810 |
| Justin Foscue | 4.1 | .572 | .198 | .004 | .140 | .394 | .818 | .250 | .330 | .421 | .750 |
| Elias Díaz | 4.0 | .609 | .155 | .006 | .133 | .256 | .920 | .244 | .298 | .397 | .695 |
| Jonah Bride | 3.9 | .544 | .141 | .004 | .099 | .472 | .932 | .234 | .333 | .366 | .700 |
| Cam Cauley | 3.8 | .553 | .147 | .031 | .085 | .292 | .971 | .237 | .300 | .371 | .670 |
Data notes: away starter Cade Povich: only 38 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Cade Povich: only 67 BF vs RHB this season · game-time temp 85F: run environment adjusted · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections