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2.5% edge · Texas RangersWashington Nationals vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds
August 20, 2026 · Andrew Alvarez vs Jacob deGrom · 72°F
Washington Nationals win
35.7%
Texas Rangers win
64.3%
Fair line (home)
-180
Proj. total
8.15
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Washington Nationals (mean 3.50)Texas Rangers (mean 4.65)
Totals
O/U line
7.5
Proj. total
8.15
Over
49.9%
Under
50.1%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nationals | 35.7% | +156 | +180 |
| Texas Rangers | 64.3% | -171 | -180 |
Projected starters
| Starter | IP | K | H | BB | R |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Andrew Alvarez LHP · Washington Nationals | 3.9 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 1.9 |
Jacob deGrom RHP · Texas Rangers | 5.3 | 6.1 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 1.8 |
Strikeout ladder
Andrew Alvarez4+ 38%6+ 9%8+ 1%
Jacob deGrom4+ 89%6+ 59%8+ 26%
Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.
Washington Nationals — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daylen Lile | 4.6 | .710 | .182 | .058 | .127 | .230 | .998 | .250 | .294 | .408 | .702 |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 4.5 | .545 | .172 | .009 | .214 | .275 | 1.204 | .227 | .281 | .428 | .709 |
| Andrés Chaparro | 4.4 | .531 | .174 | .004 | .192 | .297 | 1.162 | .224 | .283 | .412 | .695 |
| José Tena | 4.3 | .657 | .167 | .023 | .099 | .262 | 1.255 | .238 | .289 | .367 | .656 |
| Brady House | 4.2 | .613 | .154 | .014 | .142 | .164 | 1.241 | .233 | .267 | .386 | .653 |
| Keibert Ruiz | 4.0 | .654 | .167 | .003 | .117 | .170 | .590 | .245 | .282 | .381 | .663 |
| Dylan Crews | 3.9 | .522 | .140 | .011 | .127 | .236 | 1.057 | .220 | .276 | .369 | .645 |
| Nasim Nuñez | 3.8 | .613 | .077 | .024 | .037 | .311 | .961 | .216 | .284 | .284 | .569 |
| Andrew Pinckney | 3.7 | .553 | .105 | .016 | .100 | .181 | 1.261 | .223 | .268 | .349 | .617 |
Texas Rangers — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyatt Langford | 4.6 | .679 | .200 | .020 | .171 | .590 | .896 | .268 | .368 | .456 | .824 |
| Corey Seager | 4.5 | .696 | .185 | .004 | .191 | .576 | .793 | .276 | .375 | .472 | .847 |
| Jake Burger | 4.4 | .663 | .178 | .007 | .188 | .331 | .978 | .258 | .323 | .447 | .770 |
| Brandon Nimmo | 4.3 | .703 | .180 | .022 | .136 | .464 | .820 | .276 | .364 | .443 | .808 |
| Ezequiel Duran | 4.2 | .699 | .211 | .025 | .096 | .278 | .876 | .266 | .321 | .407 | .728 |
| Justin Foscue | 4.1 | .555 | .189 | .011 | .115 | .410 | .743 | .240 | .325 | .393 | .718 |
| Danny Jansen | 4.0 | .485 | .154 | .012 | .137 | .472 | .841 | .228 | .331 | .399 | .730 |
| Cody Freeman | 3.9 | .659 | .175 | .008 | .098 | .247 | .530 | .262 | .314 | .397 | .710 |
| Evan Carter | 3.7 | .539 | .147 | .027 | .091 | .446 | .777 | .248 | .348 | .394 | .741 |
Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections