Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

August 19, 2026 · Cade Cavalli vs Kumar Rocker · 72°F

1.1% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

46.9%

Texas Rangers win

53.0%

Fair line (home)

-113

Proj. total

8.4

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.18)Texas Rangers (mean 4.23)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.4

Over

52.4%

Under

47.6%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	46.9%	+114	+113
Texas Rangers	53.0%	-123	-113

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Cade Cavalli RHP · Washington Nationals	5.0	5.1	5.0	1.8	2.2
Kumar Rocker RHP · Texas Rangers	5.0	4.0	5.1	1.6	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Cade Cavalli4+ 77%6+ 42%8+ 13%

Kumar Rocker4+ 58%6+ 21%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.8	.701	.200	.029	.192	.360	.944	.260	.329	.453	.782
Abimelec Ortiz	4.7	.612	.199	.009	.214	.362	1.051	.243	.310	.446	.755
José Tena	4.5	.731	.200	.028	.099	.339	1.131	.254	.314	.387	.701
Daylen Lile	4.4	.759	.188	.061	.120	.282	.751	.274	.328	.438	.765
Andrés Chaparro	4.3	.568	.181	.005	.183	.364	.946	.238	.310	.426	.736
Keibert Ruiz	4.2	.715	.178	.003	.121	.207	.472	.256	.299	.394	.693
Jacob Young	4.1	.728	.158	.021	.070	.280	.689	.259	.318	.367	.685
Jorbit Vivas	4.0	.618	.154	.016	.060	.391	.565	.239	.325	.343	.668
Nasim Nuñez	3.9	.682	.085	.029	.040	.355	.806	.238	.312	.312	.624

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.6	.609	.145	.022	.206	.506	1.075	.245	.344	.447	.791
Corey Seager	4.5	.678	.182	.004	.189	.493	.927	.266	.354	.457	.812
Wyatt Langford	4.4	.635	.179	.020	.156	.490	1.014	.256	.347	.434	.781
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.714	.177	.018	.131	.392	.923	.271	.350	.430	.780
Ezequiel Duran	4.2	.683	.206	.023	.096	.234	.992	.258	.309	.397	.706
Evan Carter	4.1	.566	.162	.029	.105	.426	.954	.240	.332	.389	.722
Jarred Kelenic	4.0	.551	.158	.025	.116	.341	1.170	.235	.305	.389	.694
Elias Díaz	3.9	.574	.156	.005	.094	.234	.927	.231	.287	.357	.643
Nicky Lopez	3.7	.717	.118	.023	.016	.276	.609	.257	.323	.320	.642

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections