Washington Nationals vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

August 18, 2026 · Jackson Kent vs Cal Quantrill · 72°F

2.5% edge · Washington Nationals

Washington Nationals win

44.1%

Texas Rangers win

55.9%

Fair line (home)

-127

Proj. total

8.41

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Washington Nationals (mean 4.04)Texas Rangers (mean 4.38)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.41

Over

52.7%

Under

47.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Washington Nationals	44.1%	+135	+127
Texas Rangers	55.9%	-147	-127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jackson Kent LHP · Washington Nationals	4.4	4.3	4.3	1.5	2.0
Cal Quantrill RHP · Texas Rangers	3.2	2.5	3.3	0.9	1.4

Strikeout ladder

Jackson Kent4+ 59%6+ 27%8+ 9%

Cal Quantrill4+ 24%6+ 5%8+ 1%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Washington Nationals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
CJ Abrams	4.8	.729	.202	.032	.192	.320	.859	.266	.329	.460	.789
Abimelec Ortiz	4.6	.611	.179	.011	.184	.367	1.040	.234	.303	.412	.715
Brady House	4.5	.729	.179	.010	.147	.221	1.135	.249	.290	.398	.689
Daylen Lile	4.4	.753	.203	.053	.111	.279	.693	.273	.327	.430	.757
Dylan Crews	4.3	.632	.162	.018	.150	.293	.909	.243	.304	.406	.710
Jorbit Vivas	4.2	.668	.171	.008	.069	.400	.565	.245	.331	.350	.681
Harry Ford	4.1	.553	.146	.005	.084	.464	1.020	.220	.319	.334	.654
Nasim Nuñez	4.0	.690	.095	.030	.042	.370	.885	.238	.313	.315	.628
Jacob Young	3.9	.681	.146	.020	.069	.250	.674	.257	.314	.367	.681

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wyatt Langford	4.6	.667	.188	.026	.170	.511	1.020	.261	.350	.447	.797
Corey Seager	4.5	.666	.178	.004	.208	.491	.912	.268	.354	.473	.827
Jake Burger	4.4	.644	.169	.007	.197	.280	1.096	.252	.309	.444	.754
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.688	.175	.018	.136	.406	.898	.268	.347	.430	.777
Ezequiel Duran	4.2	.687	.203	.019	.096	.237	.953	.258	.307	.394	.702
Justin Foscue	4.1	.539	.190	.005	.122	.378	.830	.236	.316	.391	.708
Danny Jansen	3.9	.467	.140	.013	.132	.423	.956	.217	.313	.379	.692
Cody Freeman	3.8	.652	.170	.007	.091	.236	.560	.257	.308	.385	.694
Evan Carter	3.7	.508	.134	.034	.112	.419	.850	.243	.339	.410	.749

Data notes: away starter Jackson Kent: only 5 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Jackson Kent: only 14 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections