Athletics vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 1, 2026 · Brady Basso vs MacKenzie Gore · 72°F

4.9% edge · Athletics

Athletics win

38.9%

Texas Rangers win

61.1%

Fair line (home)

-157

Proj. total

8.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Athletics (mean 3.77)Texas Rangers (mean 4.60)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.37

Over

52.8%

Under

47.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Athletics	38.9%	+188	+157
Texas Rangers	61.1%	-208	-157

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Brady Basso LHP · Athletics	2.2	1.9	2.3	0.7	0.9
MacKenzie Gore LHP · Texas Rangers	5.4	6.3	4.7	1.7	2.0

Strikeout ladder

Brady Basso4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

MacKenzie Gore4+ 90%6+ 63%8+ 30%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Athletics — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Henry Bolte	4.7	.715	.182	.024	.134	.341	1.499	.247	.313	.395	.709
Zack Gelof	4.6	.586	.172	.013	.180	.389	1.413	.230	.301	.408	.709
Lawrence Butler	4.5	.559	.162	.014	.166	.449	1.247	.226	.307	.399	.705
Jonah Heim	4.4	.592	.149	.003	.143	.311	.946	.221	.283	.367	.649
Tommy White	4.3	.707	.168	.011	.117	.195	.854	.249	.290	.384	.674
Jeff McNeil	4.1	.694	.172	.018	.088	.348	.578	.261	.334	.388	.721
Max Muncy	4.0	.525	.157	.017	.124	.257	1.321	.221	.282	.372	.654
Alika Williams	3.9	.614	.174	.012	.070	.242	.900	.239	.293	.351	.644
Denzel Clarke	3.8	.509	.142	.024	.093	.270	1.359	.221	.286	.355	.641

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Justin Foscue	4.6	.648	.217	.014	.150	.426	.901	.250	.328	.418	.746
Corey Seager	4.5	.669	.177	.004	.213	.548	.891	.272	.367	.483	.850
Wyatt Langford	4.4	.634	.183	.022	.179	.520	.953	.266	.359	.466	.825
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.696	.177	.018	.156	.438	.887	.277	.360	.457	.818
Ezequiel Duran	4.2	.698	.209	.021	.109	.271	.955	.268	.323	.418	.741
Jake Burger	4.1	.591	.175	.005	.197	.288	.983	.259	.320	.467	.787
Cody Freeman	4.0	.677	.173	.008	.112	.232	.598	.262	.311	.405	.716
Evan Carter	3.8	.554	.141	.030	.113	.441	.852	.250	.347	.412	.758
Elias Díaz	3.7	.550	.148	.004	.103	.253	.874	.234	.293	.369	.662

Data notes: away starter Brady Basso: only 47 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections