Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 3, 2026 · Shane McClanahan vs Cal Quantrill · 72°F

0.9% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

54.6%

Texas Rangers win

45.4%

Fair line (home)

+120

Proj. total

8.34

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.52)Texas Rangers (mean 3.82)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.34

Over

44.7%

Under

47.4%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	54.6%	-121	-120
Texas Rangers	45.4%	+112	+120

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Shane McClanahan LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	4.8	4.8	4.4	1.5	1.9
Cal Quantrill RHP · Texas Rangers	3.2	2.1	3.5	0.9	1.5

Strikeout ladder

Shane McClanahan4+ 73%6+ 34%8+ 10%

Cal Quantrill4+ 15%6+ 2%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.885	.206	.011	.172	.423	.650	.294	.365	.466	.831
Chandler Simpson	4.7	1.102	.145	.054	.017	.234	.418	.296	.333	.364	.697
Junior Caminero	4.6	.677	.174	.010	.311	.414	.796	.282	.352	.554	.905
Jonathan Aranda	4.5	.741	.182	.003	.154	.454	.999	.272	.356	.436	.793
Jonny DeLuca	4.4	.641	.197	.021	.138	.280	.838	.245	.301	.406	.707
Cedric Mullins	4.3	.585	.148	.025	.136	.371	.882	.231	.305	.388	.693
Jorge Mateo	4.2	.594	.189	.010	.115	.227	1.029	.232	.278	.374	.652
Richie Palacios	4.0	.593	.145	.024	.077	.447	.735	.236	.329	.355	.684
Nick Fortes	3.9	.650	.164	.005	.099	.193	.570	.250	.300	.378	.678

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ezequiel Duran	4.5	.658	.203	.022	.122	.254	1.156	.241	.290	.388	.678
Corey Seager	4.3	.598	.159	.003	.211	.456	.952	.251	.334	.458	.792
Wyatt Langford	4.3	.559	.162	.019	.179	.443	1.035	.243	.327	.438	.765
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.606	.155	.018	.149	.375	.991	.248	.324	.419	.743
Justin Foscue	4.1	.516	.174	.011	.131	.331	.911	.225	.297	.385	.682
Jake Burger	4.0	.519	.145	.006	.190	.236	1.090	.234	.288	.431	.719
Logan O'Hoppe	3.8	.498	.117	.005	.140	.261	1.099	.215	.275	.369	.644
Cody Freeman	3.7	.577	.149	.007	.100	.199	.624	.239	.284	.372	.655
Elias Díaz	3.6	.485	.128	.004	.106	.206	.947	.215	.266	.349	.615

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections