Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 4, 2026 · Nick Martinez vs Trevor Williams · 72°F

1.9% edge · Texas Rangers

Tampa Bay Rays win

47.2%

Texas Rangers win

52.8%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.53)Texas Rangers (mean 4.57)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.1

Over

51.8%

Under

48.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	47.2%	-100	+112
Texas Rangers	52.8%	-108	-112

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nick Martinez RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.4	3.7	6.0	1.4	2.9
Trevor Williams RHP · Texas Rangers	2.4	1.8	2.5	0.7	1.0

Strikeout ladder

Nick Martinez4+ 53%6+ 17%8+ 3%

Trevor Williams4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.885	.209	.009	.160	.436	.707	.290	.362	.453	.815
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.779	.183	.005	.151	.463	1.142	.266	.347	.419	.765
Junior Caminero	4.6	.688	.171	.010	.295	.412	.827	.278	.346	.534	.881
Liam Hicks	4.5	.772	.157	.012	.114	.456	.571	.265	.352	.396	.748
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.4	.644	.165	.030	.161	.322	.920	.246	.305	.420	.726
Chandler Simpson	4.3	1.025	.136	.046	.013	.221	.397	.299	.337	.365	.703
Cedric Mullins	4.2	.574	.150	.024	.133	.369	.892	.232	.306	.389	.695
Richie Palacios	4.1	.600	.151	.021	.072	.432	.750	.234	.323	.348	.671
Taylor Walls	4.0	.552	.137	.020	.051	.366	.940	.213	.291	.306	.596

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.5	.603	.149	.021	.261	.414	.894	.254	.333	.494	.827
Corey Seager	4.4	.688	.188	.003	.243	.397	.768	.280	.350	.510	.860
Wyatt Langford	4.3	.643	.188	.019	.198	.397	.827	.269	.342	.479	.821
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.687	.180	.022	.160	.315	.778	.272	.334	.454	.788
Ezequiel Duran	4.1	.683	.197	.025	.127	.209	.850	.265	.308	.426	.735
Jake Burger	4.0	.593	.169	.005	.216	.207	.892	.260	.307	.479	.787
Evan Carter	3.9	.559	.147	.027	.124	.335	.803	.242	.316	.405	.721
Cody Freeman	3.8	.644	.157	.013	.116	.169	.499	.258	.295	.405	.701
Elias Díaz	3.7	.548	.154	.004	.113	.187	.792	.237	.282	.382	.664

Data notes: home starter Trevor Williams: only 41 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Trevor Williams: only 40 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections