Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 5, 2026 · Drew Rasmussen vs Jacob deGrom · 72°F

0.6% edge · Texas Rangers

Tampa Bay Rays win

49.4%

Texas Rangers win

50.6%

Fair line (home)

-102

Proj. total

7.96

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.07)Texas Rangers (mean 3.89)

Totals

O/U line

6.5

Proj. total

7.96

Over

60.0%

Under

40.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	49.4%	-104	+102
Texas Rangers	50.6%	-104	-102

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Drew Rasmussen RHP · Tampa Bay Rays	5.2	5.2	4.8	1.4	2.1
Jacob deGrom RHP · Texas Rangers	5.1	5.2	4.7	1.4	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Drew Rasmussen4+ 79%6+ 43%8+ 14%

Jacob deGrom4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.7	.826	.190	.009	.161	.387	.873	.275	.340	.436	.776
Jonathan Aranda	4.6	.717	.171	.004	.150	.395	1.325	.249	.321	.399	.720
Junior Caminero	4.5	.632	.159	.008	.293	.355	.995	.264	.325	.518	.843
Liam Hicks	4.4	.733	.148	.010	.118	.412	.706	.256	.336	.388	.724
Chandler Simpson	4.3	1.006	.127	.043	.014	.199	.509	.289	.324	.351	.675
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.2	.578	.135	.027	.158	.264	1.048	.229	.281	.398	.679
Cedric Mullins	4.1	.518	.138	.022	.125	.321	1.047	.215	.282	.364	.646
Richie Palacios	4.0	.560	.140	.021	.072	.379	.877	.223	.303	.335	.638
Taylor Walls	3.9	.499	.131	.018	.052	.325	1.092	.200	.271	.292	.563

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Joc Pederson	4.5	.557	.134	.021	.204	.420	1.144	.230	.315	.428	.742
Corey Seager	4.4	.628	.169	.003	.202	.402	.964	.255	.330	.454	.784
Wyatt Langford	4.3	.583	.165	.019	.153	.395	1.035	.240	.317	.412	.729
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.654	.168	.017	.137	.320	.991	.257	.324	.419	.742
Ezequiel Duran	4.1	.616	.187	.026	.098	.207	1.045	.243	.289	.382	.671
Jake Burger	4.0	.530	.147	.005	.177	.213	1.108	.231	.282	.417	.698
Evan Carter	3.8	.511	.139	.024	.100	.332	.976	.223	.300	.364	.664
Cody Freeman	3.7	.590	.147	.013	.099	.180	.620	.242	.283	.375	.658
Danny Jansen	3.6	.411	.121	.010	.125	.305	.968	.206	.285	.365	.651

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections