Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 15, 2026 · Patrick Sandoval vs Jacob deGrom · 72°F

1.6% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

45.6%

Texas Rangers win

54.4%

Fair line (home)

-119

Proj. total

8.49

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.13)Texas Rangers (mean 4.36)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.49

Over

53.9%

Under

46.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	45.6%	+123	+119
Texas Rangers	54.4%	-133	-119

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Patrick Sandoval LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.1	4.9	5.2	2.2	2.5
Jacob deGrom RHP · Texas Rangers	5.1	6.1	4.5	1.5	1.9

Strikeout ladder

Patrick Sandoval4+ 73%6+ 36%8+ 11%

Jacob deGrom4+ 88%6+ 59%8+ 26%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.7	.644	.194	.034	.148	.490	1.419	.243	.326	.411	.738
Mickey Gasper	4.6	.660	.202	.008	.140	.407	1.013	.243	.319	.397	.716
Adley Rutschman	4.5	.649	.193	.018	.140	.411	.873	.245	.317	.404	.721
Willson Contreras	4.4	.561	.176	.017	.200	.383	1.323	.243	.324	.448	.773
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.555	.186	.021	.180	.382	1.108	.241	.312	.438	.750
Trevor Story	4.2	.604	.178	.004	.124	.192	1.339	.229	.269	.369	.638
Jarren Duran	4.1	.516	.181	.051	.115	.266	1.176	.228	.285	.394	.678
Caleb Durbin	4.0	.614	.182	.013	.100	.255	.633	.250	.313	.390	.704
Nick Sogard	3.8	.581	.140	.013	.054	.334	.975	.227	.299	.321	.620

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Justin Foscue	4.6	.625	.212	.012	.136	.466	.983	.240	.324	.396	.720
Corey Seager	4.5	.670	.183	.003	.183	.555	.934	.265	.361	.453	.815
Josh Jung	4.4	.770	.206	.013	.132	.313	.974	.277	.336	.433	.768
Jake Burger	4.3	.608	.160	.006	.187	.339	1.121	.246	.315	.434	.749
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.674	.175	.020	.117	.446	.931	.267	.353	.421	.774
Wyatt Langford	4.1	.580	.173	.018	.141	.537	.927	.259	.363	.439	.802
Ezequiel Duran	4.0	.653	.184	.025	.094	.294	.967	.262	.324	.404	.728
Elias Díaz	3.9	.575	.157	.004	.092	.268	.983	.232	.291	.355	.647
Danny Jansen	3.7	.425	.133	.011	.131	.437	.922	.215	.317	.383	.700

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections