Tampa Bay Rays vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 6, 2026 · Ian Seymour vs MacKenzie Gore · 72°F

1.5% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

51.7%

Texas Rangers win

48.3%

Fair line (home)

+107

Proj. total

8.25

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.33)Texas Rangers (mean 3.92)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.25

Over

50.9%

Under

49.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	51.7%	-105	-107
Texas Rangers	48.3%	-103	+107

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Ian Seymour LHP · Tampa Bay Rays	2.8	2.9	2.5	0.9	1.1
MacKenzie Gore LHP · Texas Rangers	5.2	5.1	5.1	1.8	2.2

Strikeout ladder

Ian Seymour4+ 32%6+ 6%8+ 1%

MacKenzie Gore4+ 78%6+ 41%8+ 13%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.858	.195	.008	.160	.474	.808	.286	.365	.448	.813
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.726	.170	.003	.151	.493	1.255	.254	.342	.406	.747
Junior Caminero	4.6	.641	.168	.009	.286	.451	.948	.269	.345	.524	.870
Ryan Vilade	4.5	.655	.160	.025	.131	.370	1.138	.239	.308	.387	.695
Chandler Simpson	4.4	1.019	.136	.049	.014	.243	.473	.297	.337	.364	.701
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.605	.182	.019	.118	.294	.977	.235	.295	.382	.677
Jorge Mateo	4.1	.546	.186	.011	.101	.273	1.170	.220	.275	.353	.628
Victor Mesa Jr.	4.0	.578	.139	.025	.140	.307	.948	.239	.302	.404	.706
Nick Fortes	3.9	.631	.145	.005	.094	.213	.675	.241	.294	.361	.655

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ezequiel Duran	4.5	.660	.185	.025	.137	.265	1.125	.242	.295	.397	.692
Corey Seager	4.4	.580	.173	.002	.222	.459	.957	.252	.337	.469	.806
Justin Foscue	4.3	.524	.183	.009	.153	.350	.948	.225	.298	.396	.694
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.603	.162	.017	.148	.362	.987	.248	.323	.419	.742
Wyatt Langford	4.1	.531	.145	.018	.170	.436	.966	.241	.330	.433	.762
Jake Burger	4.0	.510	.141	.005	.197	.243	1.087	.233	.289	.435	.724
Logan O'Hoppe	3.8	.508	.119	.005	.139	.254	1.073	.217	.278	.371	.649
Elias Díaz	3.7	.498	.133	.004	.106	.226	.975	.214	.269	.347	.615
Cody Freeman	3.6	.554	.138	.013	.104	.195	.585	.240	.285	.381	.666

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections