Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 16, 2026 · Jake Bennett vs MacKenzie Gore · 72°F

1.4% edge · Texas Rangers

Boston Red Sox win

47.7%

Texas Rangers win

52.3%

Fair line (home)

-109

Proj. total

8.91

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.46)Texas Rangers (mean 4.46)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.91

Over

49.8%

Under

42.5%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	47.7%	-101	+109
Texas Rangers	52.3%	-108	-109

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Jake Bennett LHP · Boston Red Sox	5.2	4.3	5.8	1.4	2.6
MacKenzie Gore LHP · Texas Rangers	5.1	5.6	4.8	2.1	2.3

Strikeout ladder

Jake Bennett4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 7%

MacKenzie Gore4+ 83%6+ 51%8+ 20%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.8	.673	.199	.035	.145	.623	1.333	.252	.354	.421	.775
Jahmai Jones	4.7	.606	.184	.035	.148	.472	1.333	.233	.321	.400	.721
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.596	.208	.023	.186	.514	1.084	.249	.337	.449	.785
Willson Contreras	4.5	.585	.185	.018	.196	.491	1.236	.253	.355	.461	.815
Adley Rutschman	4.4	.633	.197	.012	.128	.469	.766	.248	.332	.403	.735
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.678	.198	.014	.110	.363	.589	.261	.341	.406	.747
Trevor Story	4.2	.620	.180	.006	.120	.236	1.251	.236	.285	.377	.662
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	4.1	.771	.157	.014	.050	.252	.700	.262	.315	.350	.665
Nate Eaton	4.0	.569	.153	.023	.091	.262	1.041	.228	.287	.357	.645

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Justin Foscue	4.6	.688	.226	.014	.151	.344	.891	.257	.321	.425	.746
Corey Seager	4.5	.712	.194	.003	.207	.430	.845	.278	.353	.482	.835
Josh Jung	4.4	.815	.214	.015	.132	.244	.905	.287	.333	.443	.777
Jake Burger	4.3	.643	.180	.006	.203	.254	1.034	.260	.313	.463	.776
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.707	.182	.017	.125	.342	.859	.272	.340	.429	.768
Wyatt Langford	4.1	.611	.179	.019	.158	.419	.872	.268	.349	.459	.807
Ezequiel Duran	4.0	.688	.192	.025	.101	.227	.870	.272	.322	.420	.742
Elias Díaz	3.8	.604	.160	.005	.101	.210	.901	.242	.290	.374	.664
Danny Jansen	3.7	.476	.136	.012	.135	.343	.858	.229	.312	.400	.712

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections