Boston Red Sox vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 17, 2026 · Sonny Gray vs Tyler Alexander · 72°F

0.1% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

53.2%

Texas Rangers win

46.8%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

8.85

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.71)Texas Rangers (mean 4.15)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

8.85

Over

49.1%

Under

43.1%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	53.2%	-118	-114
Texas Rangers	46.8%	+109	+114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sonny Gray RHP · Boston Red Sox	5.4	5.4	5.6	1.5	2.4
Tyler Alexander LHP · Texas Rangers	2.1	1.9	2.2	0.7	0.9

Strikeout ladder

Sonny Gray4+ 80%6+ 46%8+ 17%

Tyler Alexander4+ 10%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Boston Red Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Roman Anthony	4.9	.718	.211	.035	.152	.599	1.174	.264	.359	.438	.797
Jahmai Jones	4.8	.635	.201	.033	.156	.463	1.211	.243	.328	.417	.745
Wilyer Abreu	4.7	.640	.212	.025	.201	.463	.978	.259	.337	.467	.804
Willson Contreras	4.5	.617	.185	.018	.197	.459	1.100	.257	.353	.463	.816
Adley Rutschman	4.4	.659	.201	.017	.142	.455	.676	.257	.338	.424	.762
Trevor Story	4.3	.654	.198	.004	.128	.241	1.135	.243	.292	.389	.681
Jarren Duran	4.2	.573	.182	.057	.127	.324	1.011	.245	.311	.421	.732
Caleb Durbin	4.1	.659	.199	.012	.098	.320	.497	.264	.339	.405	.744
Nick Sogard	4.0	.619	.168	.012	.054	.399	.834	.240	.323	.340	.663

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ezequiel Duran	4.6	.785	.212	.031	.107	.263	1.152	.264	.312	.403	.715
Corey Seager	4.5	.687	.187	.004	.192	.438	.980	.267	.344	.459	.802
Josh Jung	4.4	.786	.210	.013	.128	.263	1.022	.279	.328	.432	.760
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.689	.178	.020	.126	.355	1.031	.262	.331	.416	.747
Wyatt Langford	4.2	.603	.176	.016	.153	.430	1.014	.256	.338	.436	.774
Jake Burger	4.1	.587	.155	.006	.172	.252	1.132	.244	.299	.425	.724
Nicky Lopez	4.0	.766	.129	.023	.019	.268	.692	.257	.315	.321	.636
Danny Jansen	3.8	.474	.142	.011	.133	.362	.998	.222	.305	.386	.691
Evan Carter	3.7	.522	.141	.032	.091	.367	.959	.238	.322	.383	.705

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections