Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 20, 2026 · Spencer Miles vs Jacob deGrom · 72°F

4.0% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

43.6%

Texas Rangers win

56.4%

Fair line (home)

-129

Proj. total

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.82)Texas Rangers (mean 4.18)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

Over

49.0%

Under

51.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	43.6%	+147	+129
Texas Rangers	56.4%	-160	-129

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Spencer Miles RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	2.3	2.1	2.2	0.8	0.9
Jacob deGrom RHP · Texas Rangers	5.1	5.6	4.6	1.2	1.8

Strikeout ladder

Spencer Miles4+ 15%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Jacob deGrom4+ 83%6+ 50%8+ 18%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.7	.805	.153	.019	.045	.415	1.253	.241	.312	.318	.629
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.6	.765	.199	.003	.194	.423	.764	.282	.353	.474	.827
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.786	.181	.013	.107	.268	.826	.261	.310	.387	.697
Kazuma Okamoto	4.4	.535	.168	.004	.206	.300	1.240	.227	.286	.424	.709
Sean Keys	4.3	.501	.154	.019	.173	.308	1.374	.217	.282	.399	.682
Josh Smith	4.1	.606	.152	.014	.086	.340	.990	.229	.303	.346	.649
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.639	.160	.008	.095	.180	.861	.239	.286	.361	.646
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.482	.125	.004	.123	.274	1.182	.203	.264	.342	.606
Ernie Clement	3.8	.689	.183	.011	.073	.140	.453	.263	.294	.380	.674

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wyatt Langford	4.6	.640	.179	.019	.161	.569	1.027	.251	.349	.427	.776
Corey Seager	4.5	.661	.172	.004	.189	.501	.914	.261	.350	.451	.801
Josh Jung	4.4	.739	.205	.012	.141	.281	.932	.271	.325	.433	.758
Ezequiel Duran	4.3	.675	.195	.023	.104	.279	.996	.254	.310	.394	.704
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.657	.161	.018	.126	.399	.922	.260	.339	.415	.754
Jake Burger	4.0	.562	.152	.006	.182	.295	1.049	.243	.306	.434	.740
Nicky Lopez	3.9	.741	.128	.020	.016	.304	.631	.252	.319	.313	.631
Danny Jansen	3.8	.459	.141	.009	.120	.404	.899	.217	.312	.372	.684
Evan Carter	3.7	.496	.125	.026	.096	.397	.905	.228	.320	.371	.691

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections