Toronto Blue Jays vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 19, 2026 · José Soriano vs Cal Quantrill · 72°F

4.3% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Toronto Blue Jays win

53.3%

Texas Rangers win

46.8%

Fair line (home)

+114

Proj. total

8.98

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.76)Texas Rangers (mean 4.23)

Totals

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.98

Over

58.3%

Under

41.7%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Toronto Blue Jays	53.3%	-100	-114
Texas Rangers	46.8%	-109	+114

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
José Soriano RHP · Toronto Blue Jays	5.2	5.0	5.2	2.4	2.3
Cal Quantrill RHP · Texas Rangers	3.3	2.0	3.8	1.2	1.7

Strikeout ladder

José Soriano4+ 75%6+ 39%8+ 12%

Cal Quantrill4+ 13%6+ 1%8+ 0%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.9	.899	.179	.020	.054	.509	.970	.265	.346	.352	.699
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.8	.842	.230	.003	.200	.488	.556	.300	.377	.497	.875
Alejandro Kirk	4.7	.831	.178	.005	.157	.475	.515	.281	.359	.439	.798
George Springer	4.6	.718	.179	.014	.191	.445	.752	.270	.348	.462	.810
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.849	.198	.011	.104	.302	.610	.282	.337	.412	.749
Kazuma Okamoto	4.3	.585	.177	.003	.225	.374	.920	.252	.325	.470	.795
Josh Smith	4.2	.642	.170	.015	.092	.413	.768	.245	.332	.371	.703
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.705	.176	.011	.093	.207	.674	.258	.312	.382	.695
Myles Straw	4.0	.682	.162	.017	.037	.318	.624	.245	.309	.329	.638

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ezequiel Duran	4.7	.769	.215	.026	.099	.344	1.089	.259	.321	.391	.712
Corey Seager	4.6	.695	.186	.003	.159	.568	.928	.264	.363	.434	.797
Josh Jung	4.5	.784	.210	.011	.118	.316	.953	.274	.333	.418	.751
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.705	.179	.018	.106	.451	.955	.263	.350	.402	.752
Wyatt Langford	4.2	.607	.173	.017	.141	.549	.941	.257	.359	.429	.789
Jake Burger	4.1	.592	.156	.006	.151	.337	1.071	.241	.312	.407	.719
Nicky Lopez	4.0	.767	.132	.022	.016	.334	.659	.257	.327	.318	.645
Danny Jansen	3.9	.478	.138	.012	.112	.452	.934	.217	.319	.363	.682
Evan Carter	3.8	.512	.139	.034	.083	.454	.898	.233	.335	.372	.707

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections