New York Mets vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 24, 2026 · Zac Thornton vs Kumar Rocker · 72°F

5.3% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

50.7%

Texas Rangers win

49.3%

Fair line (home)

+103

Proj. total

9.58

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.92)Texas Rangers (mean 4.66)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.58

Over

55.7%

Under

44.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	50.7%	+116	-103
Texas Rangers	49.3%	-126	+103

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Zac Thornton LHP · New York Mets	5.1	4.1	5.5	1.6	2.7
Kumar Rocker RHP · Texas Rangers	4.8	3.9	5.1	2.1	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Zac Thornton4+ 59%6+ 22%8+ 5%

Kumar Rocker4+ 57%6+ 20%8+ 4%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.9	.745	.174	.028	.203	.453	.877	.262	.340	.453	.793
Juan Soto	4.8	.666	.152	.020	.276	.918	.716	.289	.428	.554	.982
Bo Bichette	4.7	.884	.215	.015	.144	.330	.750	.290	.343	.446	.790
Carson Benge	4.6	.809	.170	.029	.145	.379	.921	.278	.344	.437	.781
Brett Baty	4.5	.688	.169	.011	.146	.407	1.071	.252	.324	.408	.732
Marcus Semien	4.4	.651	.149	.012	.147	.396	.715	.244	.316	.400	.716
A.J. Ewing	4.3	.751	.180	.024	.080	.403	.941	.270	.343	.392	.736
Luis Torrens	4.1	.632	.171	.006	.130	.275	.843	.245	.302	.395	.697
Nick Morabito	4.0	.677	.135	.017	.065	.307	.964	.243	.308	.341	.649

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Justin Foscue	4.6	.646	.224	.012	.170	.383	.864	.252	.323	.433	.756
Corey Seager	4.5	.661	.188	.003	.238	.463	.821	.272	.353	.499	.853
Josh Jung	4.4	.762	.207	.012	.163	.269	.871	.280	.331	.456	.787
Jake Burger	4.3	.612	.178	.005	.222	.291	.993	.258	.316	.474	.789
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.680	.178	.018	.148	.369	.841	.273	.346	.448	.794
Wyatt Langford	4.1	.577	.176	.018	.176	.473	.834	.265	.356	.472	.828
Ezequiel Duran	4.0	.650	.191	.025	.117	.236	.861	.265	.316	.425	.741
Elias Díaz	3.9	.572	.155	.004	.122	.230	.856	.237	.289	.384	.672
Danny Jansen	3.7	.454	.143	.011	.146	.388	.799	.229	.322	.413	.735

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections