New York Mets vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 23, 2026 · Nolan McLean vs Cody Bradford · 72°F

6.0% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

56.0%

Texas Rangers win

44.0%

Fair line (home)

+127

Proj. total

9.42

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 5.13)Texas Rangers (mean 4.29)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.42

Over

53.7%

Under

38.2%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	56.0%	-104	-127
Texas Rangers	44.0%	-104	+127

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Nolan McLean RHP · New York Mets	5.3	5.5	5.2	2.3	2.4
Cody Bradford LHP · Texas Rangers	4.8	3.5	5.5	1.4	2.7

Strikeout ladder

Nolan McLean4+ 82%6+ 49%8+ 19%

Cody Bradford4+ 46%6+ 13%8+ 2%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.9	.739	.184	.021	.235	.329	.815	.264	.325	.473	.798
Juan Soto	4.8	.675	.161	.017	.309	.772	.654	.294	.411	.577	.989
Bo Bichette	4.7	.905	.213	.016	.165	.260	.679	.297	.340	.466	.806
Mark Vientos	4.5	.660	.191	.008	.264	.283	.994	.266	.317	.502	.819
Carson Benge	4.4	.771	.163	.028	.152	.301	.837	.272	.329	.437	.766
Marcus Semien	4.3	.667	.155	.013	.164	.343	.660	.252	.315	.422	.737
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.567	.154	.007	.228	.347	1.022	.250	.319	.473	.792
A.J. Ewing	4.1	.741	.181	.022	.085	.321	.862	.274	.335	.402	.737
Nick Morabito	4.0	.680	.132	.015	.075	.261	.888	.245	.301	.350	.651

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wyatt Langford	4.7	.630	.190	.019	.162	.622	1.112	.250	.359	.429	.787
Corey Seager	4.5	.636	.184	.003	.192	.557	.977	.257	.356	.452	.808
Josh Jung	4.5	.738	.205	.011	.135	.325	1.035	.268	.330	.423	.753
Brandon Nimmo	4.3	.676	.172	.019	.128	.442	1.010	.260	.346	.414	.760
Ezequiel Duran	4.2	.655	.195	.025	.097	.297	1.081	.250	.312	.388	.700
Jake Burger	4.1	.564	.159	.005	.180	.329	1.117	.242	.313	.431	.745
Nicky Lopez	4.0	.737	.124	.023	.018	.343	.703	.250	.326	.312	.638
Danny Jansen	3.9	.448	.142	.012	.129	.448	.967	.215	.319	.378	.697
Evan Carter	3.8	.494	.129	.029	.090	.423	.985	.224	.323	.362	.685

Data notes: home starter Cody Bradford: only 62 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections