New York Mets vs Texas Rangers — Prediction & Odds

September 22, 2026 · Sean Manaea vs MacKenzie Gore · 72°F

4.1% edge · New York Mets

New York Mets win

50.2%

Texas Rangers win

49.8%

Fair line (home)

+101

Proj. total

9.37

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Mets (mean 4.80)Texas Rangers (mean 4.57)

Totals

O/U line

Proj. total

9.37

Over

53.9%

Under

39.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Mets	50.2%	+113	-101
Texas Rangers	49.8%	-122	+101

Projected starters

Starter	IP	K	H	BB	R
Sean Manaea LHP · New York Mets	4.4	4.3	4.5	1.6	2.3
MacKenzie Gore LHP · Texas Rangers	5.0	5.2	4.9	2.2	2.4

Strikeout ladder

Sean Manaea4+ 64%6+ 26%8+ 6%

MacKenzie Gore4+ 78%6+ 42%8+ 14%

Per-game averages across all simulations. IP is a decimal average of outs recorded, not baseball's 5.2 notation. R is runs allowed while the starter was still in the game; the simulation models no errors, so every run is earned by construction — which is why this says R and not ER.

New York Mets — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Francisco Lindor	4.9	.707	.162	.017	.189	.426	1.000	.248	.327	.424	.751
Juan Soto	4.7	.618	.141	.017	.268	.928	.828	.276	.421	.534	.955
Bo Bichette	4.6	.844	.197	.017	.147	.340	.855	.282	.338	.438	.777
Mark Vientos	4.5	.609	.167	.008	.226	.330	1.206	.243	.305	.450	.755
Carson Benge	4.4	.740	.160	.024	.143	.371	1.000	.266	.335	.425	.761
Marcus Semien	4.3	.632	.134	.012	.138	.416	.825	.236	.314	.383	.697
Francisco Alvarez	4.2	.529	.137	.007	.198	.418	1.189	.232	.315	.430	.745
A.J. Ewing	4.1	.686	.168	.021	.069	.377	1.043	.255	.328	.367	.695
Luis Torrens	4.0	.568	.169	.006	.120	.274	.908	.235	.295	.383	.678

Texas Rangers — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Wyatt Langford	4.6	.624	.188	.017	.195	.573	1.062	.256	.355	.457	.812
Corey Seager	4.5	.648	.185	.003	.226	.496	.911	.268	.356	.487	.843
Josh Jung	4.4	.755	.206	.011	.167	.284	.964	.280	.336	.460	.796
Jake Burger	4.3	.592	.162	.005	.223	.312	1.111	.250	.315	.465	.780
Brandon Nimmo	4.2	.636	.167	.019	.151	.395	.937	.261	.341	.437	.778
Ezequiel Duran	4.1	.650	.180	.025	.121	.267	.975	.259	.316	.416	.732
Justin Foscue	4.0	.515	.186	.011	.142	.342	.850	.239	.315	.416	.732
Elias Díaz	3.9	.556	.147	.004	.119	.249	.957	.232	.290	.375	.665
Danny Jansen	3.7	.433	.130	.010	.145	.395	.898	.220	.317	.400	.717

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections