Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

July 18, 2026 · Davis Martin vs Shane Bieber · 80°F

4.1% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Chicago White Sox win

45.5%

Toronto Blue Jays win

54.5%

Fair line (home)

-120

Proj. total

9.3

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Chicago White Sox (mean 4.58)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.72)

Totals

O/U line

9.5

Proj. total

9.3

Over

43.0%

Under

57.0%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Chicago White Sox	45.5%	-102	+120
Toronto Blue Jays	54.5%	-106	-120

Chicago White Sox — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Sam Antonacci	4.8	.911	.201	.030	.081	.394	.782	.283	.360	.399	.759
Munetaka Murakami	4.7	.576	.129	.005	.297	.564	1.384	.243	.338	.492	.830
Miguel Vargas	4.6	.635	.213	.017	.189	.469	.810	.257	.339	.455	.794
Colson Montgomery	4.5	.548	.157	.010	.228	.335	1.302	.230	.297	.439	.736
Andrew Benintendi	4.4	.729	.166	.023	.138	.327	.829	.261	.320	.416	.735
Kyle Teel	4.3	.724	.155	.007	.125	.393	1.092	.262	.335	.403	.739
Braden Montgomery	4.2	.641	.180	.017	.101	.320	1.113	.245	.309	.381	.690
Tristan Peters	4.1	.656	.188	.023	.083	.281	.831	.253	.309	.381	.691
Chase Meidroth	4.0	.727	.147	.004	.067	.367	.714	.266	.341	.366	.708

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Ernie Clement	4.7	.928	.247	.021	.102	.208	.416	.294	.330	.428	.758
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.854	.214	.017	.102	.373	.660	.288	.352	.422	.774
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.776	.202	.003	.206	.532	.530	.308	.398	.522	.920
George Springer	4.3	.658	.171	.011	.183	.468	.785	.268	.355	.462	.816
Kazuma Okamoto	4.2	.574	.175	.004	.211	.377	.916	.253	.329	.468	.796
Daulton Varsho	4.1	.537	.172	.031	.177	.365	.907	.246	.320	.452	.771
Alejandro Kirk	4.0	.694	.152	.004	.124	.445	.471	.275	.361	.426	.787
Andrés Giménez	3.9	.662	.170	.014	.098	.229	.669	.263	.324	.401	.724
Jonatan Clase	3.8	.535	.146	.015	.084	.335	.998	.228	.303	.354	.656

Data notes: home starter Shane Bieber: only 40 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Shane Bieber: only 46 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections