Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

July 21, 2026 · Drew Rasmussen vs Kevin Gausman · 70°F

0.3% edge · Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay Rays win

50.6%

Toronto Blue Jays win

49.4%

Fair line (home)

+102

Proj. total

8.09

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.22)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 3.87)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

8.09

Over

49.8%

Under

50.2%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Tampa Bay Rays	50.6%	-105	-102
Toronto Blue Jays	49.4%	-103	+102

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Yandy Díaz	4.8	.875	.206	.013	.163	.427	.761	.291	.360	.458	.818
Jonathan Aranda	4.7	.752	.187	.004	.157	.489	1.188	.266	.350	.427	.778
Junior Caminero	4.6	.670	.176	.007	.300	.369	.894	.276	.338	.538	.875
Cedric Mullins	4.5	.608	.171	.021	.143	.370	1.033	.232	.301	.390	.691
Jonny DeLuca	4.3	.618	.192	.026	.123	.276	.944	.237	.291	.389	.680
Chandler Simpson	4.2	.940	.129	.057	.014	.223	.474	.284	.324	.355	.679
Ben Williamson	4.1	.722	.187	.018	.044	.286	.881	.254	.310	.347	.658
Taylor Walls	4.0	.527	.138	.029	.047	.401	1.039	.206	.289	.300	.589
Nick Fortes	3.9	.631	.161	.008	.089	.188	.644	.243	.289	.365	.654

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.852	.209	.017	.087	.294	.724	.280	.332	.401	.733
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.758	.196	.003	.176	.435	.599	.289	.366	.476	.842
Ernie Clement	4.3	.827	.221	.019	.080	.159	.441	.279	.310	.400	.711
George Springer	4.2	.633	.156	.011	.152	.376	.838	.252	.327	.420	.747
Daulton Varsho	4.1	.514	.166	.028	.155	.301	.999	.229	.292	.411	.703
Kazuma Okamoto	4.0	.534	.154	.004	.182	.295	.955	.240	.304	.434	.738
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.531	.130	.006	.098	.281	1.034	.214	.276	.337	.613
Andrés Giménez	3.8	.616	.154	.013	.080	.175	.691	.247	.298	.368	.665
Jonatan Clase	3.6	.489	.136	.012	.074	.264	1.041	.214	.277	.328	.605

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections