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3.2% edge · Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds
July 23, 2026 · Casey Legumina vs Shane Bieber · 66°F
Tampa Bay Rays win
47.9%
Toronto Blue Jays win
52.1%
Fair line (home)
-109
Proj. total
8.66
Score distribution
How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.
Tampa Bay Rays (mean 4.38)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.28)
Totals
O/U line
8.5
Proj. total
8.66
Over
47.4%
Under
52.6%
Model vs. market
| Side | Model | Book | Fair |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Rays | 47.9% | -109 | +109 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 52.1% | +101 | -109 |
Tampa Bay Rays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yandy Díaz | 4.8 | .932 | .217 | .014 | .162 | .402 | .690 | .303 | .367 | .470 | .837 |
| Jonathan Aranda | 4.7 | .799 | .196 | .003 | .153 | .468 | 1.119 | .275 | .356 | .433 | .789 |
| Junior Caminero | 4.6 | .724 | .179 | .005 | .290 | .332 | .847 | .282 | .337 | .531 | .868 |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | 4.5 | .682 | .188 | .018 | .122 | .308 | 1.000 | .243 | .299 | .385 | .683 |
| Jonny DeLuca | 4.4 | .659 | .201 | .028 | .116 | .267 | .889 | .246 | .298 | .394 | .693 |
| Chandler Simpson | 4.3 | 1.000 | .128 | .053 | .013 | .202 | .443 | .295 | .330 | .362 | .692 |
| Ben Williamson | 4.2 | .756 | .199 | .019 | .045 | .275 | .817 | .264 | .318 | .361 | .679 |
| Richie Palacios | 4.0 | .648 | .157 | .026 | .055 | .387 | .755 | .245 | .324 | .348 | .672 |
| Hunter Feduccia | 3.9 | .571 | .140 | .023 | .066 | .377 | 1.062 | .225 | .303 | .333 | .636 |
Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines
| Batter | PA | 1B | 2B | 3B | HR | BB | K | AVG | OBP | SLG | OPS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yohendrick Piñango | 4.6 | .654 | .197 | .009 | .117 | .404 | 1.079 | .234 | .306 | .369 | .675 |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 4.5 | .725 | .196 | .003 | .199 | .547 | .581 | .287 | .381 | .492 | .873 |
| Ernie Clement | 4.4 | .801 | .220 | .019 | .086 | .204 | .418 | .271 | .311 | .396 | .707 |
| George Springer | 4.3 | .605 | .148 | .010 | .171 | .476 | .830 | .249 | .341 | .430 | .771 |
| Alejandro Kirk | 4.2 | .684 | .149 | .005 | .123 | .470 | .523 | .261 | .349 | .404 | .753 |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 4.1 | .532 | .153 | .004 | .193 | .379 | .931 | .241 | .321 | .444 | .765 |
| Davis Schneider | 4.0 | .420 | .137 | .010 | .136 | .599 | 1.122 | .212 | .340 | .382 | .722 |
| Luis Urías | 3.9 | .553 | .138 | .008 | .109 | .399 | .656 | .239 | .332 | .381 | .714 |
| Myles Straw | 3.7 | .609 | .128 | .010 | .038 | .328 | .702 | .232 | .304 | .310 | .614 |
Data notes: home starter Shane Bieber: only 57 BF vs LHB this season · home starter Shane Bieber: only 51 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections