St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

July 31, 2026 · Kyle Leahy vs Dylan Cease · 78°F

4.6% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

41.4%

Toronto Blue Jays win

58.6%

Fair line (home)

-141

Proj. total

9.1

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.22)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.87)

O/U line

7.5

Proj. total

9.1

Over

58.9%

Under

41.1%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	41.4%	+166	+141
Toronto Blue Jays	58.6%	-182	-141

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.772	.167	.007	.143	.508	1.010	.257	.348	.401	.749
Jordan Walker	4.7	.654	.188	.008	.170	.403	1.468	.239	.309	.406	.715
Alec Burleson	4.6	.748	.177	.011	.171	.383	.876	.265	.331	.436	.767
Iván Herrera	4.5	.674	.157	.012	.129	.543	1.027	.253	.360	.401	.761
Lars Nootbaar	4.4	.591	.153	.017	.123	.611	1.075	.236	.347	.385	.731
Masyn Winn	4.3	.681	.170	.020	.094	.343	.955	.248	.314	.374	.689
Nathan Church	4.2	.674	.140	.015	.093	.267	.910	.239	.293	.355	.648
José Fermín	4.0	.601	.172	.004	.071	.447	.699	.238	.331	.349	.680
Jimmy Crooks	3.9	.509	.124	.010	.105	.336	1.345	.210	.285	.338	.624

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.7	.919	.232	.018	.097	.397	.621	.299	.364	.431	.796
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.5	.845	.220	.003	.193	.560	.499	.319	.409	.523	.933
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.655	.187	.004	.206	.398	.894	.263	.337	.466	.803
George Springer	4.3	.689	.173	.013	.171	.473	.736	.274	.360	.460	.820
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.595	.181	.035	.167	.376	.871	.256	.328	.453	.781
Ernie Clement	4.1	.843	.233	.019	.077	.184	.342	.299	.334	.426	.760
Jesús Sánchez	4.0	.646	.192	.016	.137	.346	.833	.272	.341	.446	.787
Brandon Valenzuela	3.9	.571	.145	.005	.103	.356	.897	.233	.308	.365	.672
Andrés Giménez	3.8	.681	.167	.013	.090	.208	.595	.271	.327	.403	.730

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections