St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 1, 2026 · Quinn Mathews vs Kevin Gausman · 76°F

3.1% edge · St. Louis Cardinals

St. Louis Cardinals win

44.8%

Toronto Blue Jays win

55.3%

Fair line (home)

-123

Proj. total

9.47

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

St. Louis Cardinals (mean 4.59)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.88)

Totals

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

9.47

Over

54.7%

Under

45.3%

Model vs. market

Side	Model	Book	Fair
St. Louis Cardinals	44.8%	+135	+123
Toronto Blue Jays	55.3%	-147	-123

St. Louis Cardinals — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
JJ Wetherholt	4.8	.819	.183	.008	.159	.437	.829	.271	.347	.427	.774
Jordan Walker	4.7	.740	.209	.009	.206	.338	1.251	.268	.325	.462	.786
Alec Burleson	4.6	.810	.188	.012	.198	.321	.697	.284	.338	.473	.811
Iván Herrera	4.5	.753	.173	.013	.154	.463	.858	.277	.364	.444	.809
Lars Nootbaar	4.4	.643	.168	.016	.143	.517	.923	.252	.344	.415	.759
Masyn Winn	4.3	.746	.187	.020	.096	.291	.795	.265	.320	.395	.715
Nathan Church	4.2	.722	.155	.018	.101	.235	.759	.255	.302	.382	.684
Blaze Jordan	4.1	.680	.189	.016	.114	.211	.577	.261	.303	.408	.712
Jimmy Crooks	3.9	.564	.137	.009	.116	.287	1.206	.228	.290	.366	.657

Toronto Blue Jays — projected lines

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Urías	4.8	.720	.183	.011	.115	.580	.784	.251	.356	.386	.742
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.7	.802	.213	.004	.180	.675	.574	.305	.412	.499	.911
Kazuma Okamoto	4.5	.629	.179	.005	.193	.510	.991	.253	.346	.446	.792
George Springer	4.4	.673	.164	.013	.148	.575	.804	.262	.366	.429	.795
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.746	.164	.006	.119	.567	.513	.279	.379	.423	.802
Daulton Varsho	4.2	.545	.171	.030	.151	.450	.948	.241	.328	.424	.753
Ernie Clement	4.1	.799	.221	.017	.072	.225	.376	.289	.333	.411	.744
Myles Straw	4.0	.690	.155	.013	.038	.398	.711	.251	.330	.334	.664
Davis Schneider	3.9	.437	.140	.009	.107	.677	1.061	.220	.366	.373	.739

Data notes: away starter Quinn Mathews: only 0 BF vs LHB this season · away starter Quinn Mathews: only 0 BF vs RHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections