Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 10, 2026 · Sonny Gray vs Jameson Taillon · 74°F

8.0% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

Boston Red Sox win

51.9%

Toronto Blue Jays win

48.1%

Fair line (home)

+108

Proj. total

8.74

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.55)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.19)

O/U line

8.5

Proj. total

8.74

Over

48.1%

Under

51.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	51.9%	-157	-108
Toronto Blue Jays	48.1%	+144	+108

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nick Sogard	4.8	.792	.199	.015	.060	.450	.981	.246	.322	.340	.662
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.784	.226	.034	.151	.195	.874	.268	.305	.435	.739
Wilyer Abreu	4.6	.671	.209	.022	.196	.420	.955	.264	.334	.467	.801
Willson Contreras	4.5	.651	.197	.015	.230	.393	1.031	.274	.353	.504	.857
Masataka Yoshida	4.4	.821	.207	.015	.121	.273	.519	.287	.339	.434	.773
Caleb Durbin	4.3	.681	.229	.014	.122	.268	.462	.266	.326	.425	.750
Jarren Duran	4.2	.598	.202	.053	.123	.299	.965	.254	.314	.431	.745
Anthony Seigler	4.1	.596	.175	.018	.070	.423	.808	.239	.324	.356	.679
Connor Wong	3.9	.652	.178	.009	.094	.259	.880	.257	.313	.388	.701

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Nathan Lukes	4.6	.881	.221	.018	.092	.350	.776	.286	.345	.411	.756
Brett Bateman	4.5	.774	.155	.013	.041	.511	1.164	.247	.337	.324	.661
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.774	.222	.004	.176	.479	.644	.302	.383	.496	.879
George Springer	4.3	.662	.168	.011	.153	.410	.904	.258	.335	.426	.761
Jesús Sánchez	4.2	.666	.192	.013	.136	.311	1.066	.260	.319	.422	.741
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.711	.169	.015	.086	.209	.800	.257	.309	.377	.686
Kazuma Okamoto	4.0	.552	.161	.005	.173	.320	.994	.246	.313	.436	.749
Josh Smith	3.9	.627	.155	.018	.071	.364	.813	.252	.334	.369	.703
Brandon Valenzuela	3.8	.533	.131	.005	.095	.296	1.044	.222	.288	.346	.634

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections