Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 11, 2026 · Patrick Sandoval vs Dylan Cease · 77°F

0.1% edge · Boston Red Sox

Boston Red Sox win

44.2%

Toronto Blue Jays win

55.8%

Fair line (home)

-126

Proj. total

8.44

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

Boston Red Sox (mean 4.01)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.43)

O/U line

Proj. total

8.44

Over

52.9%

Under

35.3%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
Boston Red Sox	44.2%	+122	+126
Toronto Blue Jays	55.8%	-133	-126

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Masataka Yoshida	4.8	.794	.200	.018	.105	.381	.832	.259	.327	.386	.714
Ceddanne Rafaela	4.7	.702	.202	.031	.120	.244	1.191	.242	.288	.385	.673
Adley Rutschman	4.5	.642	.177	.016	.134	.535	.889	.243	.336	.397	.733
Willson Contreras	4.4	.543	.163	.016	.184	.460	1.341	.234	.329	.426	.755
Wilyer Abreu	4.3	.537	.167	.018	.152	.481	1.208	.228	.317	.401	.717
Caleb Durbin	4.2	.624	.200	.016	.100	.332	.664	.247	.321	.386	.707
Jarren Duran	4.1	.504	.176	.046	.104	.363	1.240	.224	.300	.381	.681
Andruw Monasterio	4.0	.582	.168	.006	.068	.362	1.087	.228	.303	.335	.638
Nick Sogard	3.9	.546	.139	.011	.041	.457	1.049	.217	.315	.301	.616

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Charles McAdoo	4.7	.688	.178	.012	.109	.429	1.268	.234	.310	.359	.669
Brett Bateman	4.6	.763	.149	.015	.039	.627	1.092	.247	.354	.322	.676
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.5	.771	.210	.004	.178	.589	.602	.303	.401	.499	.901
George Springer	4.3	.673	.167	.012	.152	.514	.851	.264	.357	.434	.791
Alejandro Kirk	4.3	.728	.168	.007	.114	.514	.544	.274	.367	.415	.782
Ernie Clement	4.2	.823	.215	.017	.074	.211	.420	.289	.330	.409	.739
Andrés Giménez	4.0	.685	.173	.014	.088	.252	.746	.259	.321	.385	.705
Myles Straw	3.9	.682	.161	.013	.034	.369	.749	.251	.325	.332	.657
Nathan Lukes	3.8	.713	.167	.013	.076	.350	.589	.282	.354	.405	.758

Data notes: away starter Patrick Sandoval: only 27 BF vs LHB this season · 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections