New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays — Prediction & Odds

August 14, 2026 · Gerrit Cole vs Shane Bieber · 78°F

10.2% edge · Toronto Blue Jays

New York Yankees win

47.2%

Toronto Blue Jays win

52.8%

Fair line (home)

-112

Proj. total

9.11

Score distribution

How often each team scores each run total across all simulations.

New York Yankees (mean 4.57)Toronto Blue Jays (mean 4.54)

O/U line

Proj. total

9.11

Over

52.3%

Under

39.9%

Side	Model	Book	Fair
New York Yankees	47.2%	-142	+112
Toronto Blue Jays	52.8%	+130	-112

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Trent Grisham	4.8	.607	.163	.021	.216	.533	.996	.240	.330	.444	.774
Ben Rice	4.6	.603	.168	.024	.281	.435	.964	.258	.335	.512	.847
Spencer Jones	4.5	.580	.172	.008	.201	.321	1.631	.230	.288	.418	.707
Luis García Jr.	4.4	.791	.214	.026	.195	.186	.619	.291	.323	.493	.816
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	4.3	.608	.135	.019	.210	.373	1.096	.248	.318	.453	.771
Heliot Ramos	4.2	.703	.170	.025	.158	.262	.986	.270	.323	.448	.771
Ryan McMahon	4.1	.534	.133	.004	.159	.397	1.257	.225	.303	.393	.696
Austin Wells	4.0	.499	.147	.008	.164	.320	.988	.225	.293	.405	.698
George Lombard Jr.	3.9	.519	.161	.008	.065	.363	1.030	.217	.298	.324	.622

Batter	PA	1B	2B	3B	HR	BB	K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Brett Bateman	4.6	.754	.150	.015	.056	.494	1.136	.239	.325	.324	.649
Nathan Lukes	4.5	.815	.206	.014	.113	.310	.702	.277	.333	.416	.749
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	4.4	.730	.198	.003	.239	.441	.578	.301	.377	.538	.915
George Springer	4.3	.633	.157	.012	.206	.390	.843	.263	.338	.471	.809
Alejandro Kirk	4.2	.703	.150	.006	.165	.381	.547	.272	.344	.447	.791
Andrés Giménez	4.1	.660	.160	.013	.114	.194	.736	.250	.301	.389	.690
Kazuma Okamoto	4.0	.519	.154	.004	.224	.290	.918	.248	.311	.478	.790
Jesús Sánchez	3.8	.568	.176	.011	.154	.282	.913	.258	.318	.446	.764
Ernie Clement	3.7	.694	.190	.016	.089	.143	.367	.278	.310	.416	.726

Data notes: 20/20 lineup+starter talents from projections